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Market Outlook September 6th - September 10th PDF Print E-mail

Market Outlook

- WALL STREET:


US Indices were flat last week until August end on mixed economic data, than rocketed as of 1st of September. On the economic front, the FOMC minutes showed no big surprise, confirming Fed Chairmans statement to keep rates very low for an "extended period. Consumer Confidence unexpectedly rising to 53.5 (50.7 expected) from 51 (revised higher from 50.4) in July ended the month. September started with further better than expected economic data with among them: August ISM Manufacturing released at 56.3 (52.8 expected) vs. 55.5 for the previous month. July Pending Home Sales rocketed 5.2% (-1% expected) vs. -2.8% in June (revised lower from -2.6%). Weekly Jobless claims slightly declined to 472k (475k expected) vs. 478k in the previous week (revised higher from 473k). August ISC Chain Store Sales (excluding Wal-Mart) rising 3.2% vs.2.8% in July helped retails stocks (adding 4.95% during the week). Then, US Indices extended their rebound Friday on better than expected August Change in Nonfarm payrolls released at -54k (-105k expected) vs.-54k in July (revised from -131k) and despite an ISM Non-Manufacturing declining to 52.5 (53.2 expected) from 54.3 in July. Regarding sectors, all of them finished in the green area with real estate and banks stocks leading the rise, gaining more than 6% whereas utilities, semiconductors and household & personal products rose less than 2%. Regarding technical, the S&P500 is limited on the upside by the 1130 resistance & is expected to draw a consolidation towards 1040.

- EUROPE:
European indices bounced sharply last week with the CAC and the S&PMIB adding more than 4%. July European retail sales (YoY) rose 1.1% vs. an expectation of +0.7%. Basic resources and automobiles stocks advanced the most, rising more than 6% while telecommunication lagged behind with only 1.55%. Regarding technical, on the Stoxx 600, a further consolidation towards 237 & 230 is expected. A push above 264 is needed for a further recovery towards 272.5 could be expected.

September 6th - September 10th

Market Round up

 

Weekly chg (%)

Last

Dow Jones

2.9

10447.9

Nasdaq 100

4.4

1870.3

Dax Xetra

3.1

6134.6

Cac 40

4.7

3672.2

Foreign Exchange

Euro/dollar : the pair is posting a rebound but remains under pressure. SHORT below 1.3250 towards 1.2450 & 1.2130.

Dollar/yen : the pair stands within a ST bearish channel and is breaking below its previous low. SHORT @ 87.8 with 83 or even 80.50 in sight.

Company preview

Vinci (EUR 37.18 ; 5.72% ; DG ; SGEF.PA)
Last Wednesday, Vinci released 1H 2010 net profit attributable to owners of the parent of E703m, up 1.9% YoY on revenues of E15.5bln, up 2.3%. The operating profit from ordinary activities reached E1.4bln vs E1.36bln a year ago and the interim dividend was unchanged at E0.52 per share. Recently, the Co's price target was cut to E48 from E49 at UBS. Technically, the stock is close to the major resistance at E38.5. Hence, a ST consolidation cannot be ruled out now before any further upsides to E40.75.

Barratt Developments (GBp 103.7 ; 10.44% ; BDEV ; BDEV.L)
On Wednesday, Barratt Developments, the UK's properties developer and builder, is expected to publish a FY pre-tax loss of around 56m compared to a loss of 469m a year earlier on revenues of 2bln vs 2.3bln. Earlier, the Co was downgraded to "hold" from "buy" at RBS Group. Technically, the shares are currently trading within its MT range between 92p and 111p and may test the upper boundary in the forthcoming days.

Swiss Prime Site (CHF 66.6 ; 0.99% ; SPSN ; SPSN.S)
Thursday, Swiss Prime Site, a real estate investment company, may report 1H net income of around SF64m compared with SF70m a year ago. From a technical point of view, the stock price remains well positively oriented, backed by its rising 20D & 50D moving averages. Above SF64.2, a further bounce is more likely in sight towards SF70.

Morrison Supermarkets (GBp 289.3 ; 0.52% ; MRW ; MRW.L)
The same day, WM Morrison Supermarkets, the UK retailing giant could announce 1H pre-tax profit of 408m compared with 309m a year ago on revenues of 8.1bln vs appx. 7.5bln. Last week, the Confederation of British Industry reported UK retail sales index in August up to a 3yr high. A measure of average selling prices increased to 58 in the 3mths through August from 49 in the last quarter. Technically, the stock is now testing its key resistance at 293p. If breakout, look for a further up move to 300p at first.
National Semiconductor (USD 13.26 ; 2% ; NSM ; NSM.N)
In the US, National Semiconductor is expected to deliver 1Q EPS of $0.36 compared to $0.14 last year on Thursday. Sales may reach $414m vs $314m a year ago. Last month, the Co launched highest-precision linear RMS RF power detector for 3G/4G handset. From a chartist view, the stock remains under pressure below a descending trend line. The declining ST & MT moving averages should push the price to further decline towards $12.

Selection of those events which may affect the stock prices of international Large Caps

Corporate Calendar September 6th - September 10th

Date

Market

Company

Even

Monday, September 6th

 

CH

Partners Group

1st-Half results

 

FR

bioMeux

1st-Half result

Tuesday, September 7th

   

No major earnings expected

 

Wednesday, September 8th

 

UK

Barratt Developments

annual result

Thursday, September 9th

 

CH

Swiss Prime Site

1st-Half results

 

UK

Morrison Supermarkets

1st-Half results

 

US

National Semiconductor

4th-Quarter results

Friday, September 10th

   

No major earnings expected

 


Economic Calendar (CET) September 6th - September 10th

Date

Market

Economic data

Period

Expected

Last

Monday, September 6th

10:30:00

FR

Sentix Investor Conf.

SEP

9

8.5

Tuesday, September 7th

12:00:00

GE

Factory Orders MoM (SA)

JUL

.005

.032

Wednesday, September 8th

08:00:00

GE

Trade Balance (Bln)

JUL

13

14.1

08:45:00

FR

Trade Balance (Bln)

JUL

-4.1

-3.8

12:00:00

GE

Industrial Production MoM (SA)

JUL

.01

-.006

20:30:00

US

Fed's Beige Book

     

Thursday, September 9th

08:00:00

GE

CPI - EU Harmonised MoM

AUG

0

0

13:45:00

EC

ECB: Rates decision

 

1%

1%

14:30:00

US

Initial Jobless Claims (Thsd)

W35

470

472

14:30:00

US

Trade Balance (Bln)

JUL

-47

-49.9

Friday, September 10th

08:45:00

FR

Manufacturing Production MoM

JUL

.007

-.013

08:45:00

FR

Industrial Production MoM

JUL

.007

-.017

16:00:00

US

Wholesale Inventories

JUL

.004

.001


 

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