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Market Outlook November 22nd - November 26th PDF Print E-mail
 

Market Outlook

- WALL STREET:
US indices ended the week flat even if the Dow Jones endured Tuesday its biggest one-day drop since mid-August after breaking below its 20-day moving average which acted as a strong support since September. On the economic front, October industrial production was flat compared to September. An increase of 0.3% was expected while a 0.2% MoM decline was reported in September. October PPI rose 4.3% YoY (4.6% expected) vs 4.0% in September. Ex-food & Energy the index advanced 1.5% (2.1% expected) vs 1.6% in September. Regarding sectors, they moved in a tight range: between -1.5% & +1.5% except for real estate, declining almost 2% and consumer durable goods, advancing 2.37%. From a technical point of view, the S&P is expected to draw a limited consolidation above 1110 ahead of another leg up towards 1239.

- EUROPE:
In the UK, the FTSE was the worst performing indices in Europe, weighted on the one hand by UK exposure to Ireland debt trouble and on the other hand by inflation figures released far above BoE target. Indeed, Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said the exposure of Britains banking system to Irelands economy is "by no means trivial". End UK inflation unexpectedly accelerate in October: CPI rose 3.2% from 3.1%. BoE Governor said: "As we see things at present, there are significant risks to inflation undershooting the target" (BoE target is 2% in 2yrs). From a technical point of view, the FTSE 100 is just above a support area at 5623 and is expected to bounce towards 5900 in the coming days. In the rest of Europe, the Dax gained the most while the SPMIB & the Eurostoxx ended the week in the negative territory. Regarding sectors, automobiles & parts, construction & materials and chemicals stocks gained more than 2% whereas, banks and basic resources declined more than 2%. From a technical point of view, further advance can be expected on the Stoxx 600 with another test of this month high in sight.

 

  November 22nd - November 26th

 

border=0 Market Round up

 

Weekly chg (%)

Last

Dow Jones

.1

11203.6

Nasdaq 100

-.1

2135.3

Dax Xetra

.8

6843.6

Cac 40

.7

3891

border=0 Foreign Exchange

Euro/dollar : the pair is pulling back on its strong support ahead of a further up move. LONG above 1.33 towards 1.3850 & 1.4250.

Dollar/yen : the pair is challenging its MT bearish channel upper boundary. SHORT @ 83.8 with 80.35 or even 79 in sight.

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Company preview

border=0 Mitchells & Butlers (GBp 356 ; 3.64% ; MAB ; MAB.L)
On Tuesday, Mitchells & Butlers, the operator of pubs, bars and restaurants in the UK and Germany, is expected to deliver FY pre-tax profit of 163m vs a loss before tax of 10m a year earlier on revenues of appx. 2bln vs 1.96bln. Recently, the Co completed the disposal of the non-core pubs to Stonegate Pub Company and. The stock was rated "buy" at RBS Group. Technically, the shares remain well supported by its rising 20D MA. Above 335p, look for a further bounce to 375p at first.

border=0 Campbell Soup (USD 34.65 ; 0.38% ; CPB ; CPB.N)
On the same day, Campbell Soup, the global manufacturer of foods and simple meals, could release 1Q EPS of $0.82 compared to $0.87 a year ago on sales of $2.2bln, almost unchanged YoY. Last week, the board approved a 5% increase in its quarterly dividend to $0.29 per share, effective in the 2Q 2011. Early this month, the Co cut its FY EPS growth to 2%-4% vs 5%-7% previously expected on FY net sales growth of 1-3% vs 2-3% previously. Graphically, the stock broke down the lower boundary of its former trading range pattern between $37.5 and $35.3, which should open the way towards $33.7.

border=0 Johnson Matthey (GBp 1910 ; 0.1% ; JMAT ; JMAT.L)
Wednesday, Johnson Matthey, a specialty chemicals manufacturer, may announce 1H pre-tax profit of 157m compared with 110m a year ago. Recently, the Co was downgraded to "hold" from "buy" at Citigroup, while the stock price target was raised to 2029p vs 1900p at JPMorgan. From a technical point of view, the share price bounced off from its key support at 1800p last week and may test 1015p (the current 20D MA) at first before any further upsides to 2000p.

border=0 Tiffany & Co (USD 58.03 ; 4.26% ; TIF ; TIF.N)
The same day in the US, Tiffany & Co is expected to post 3Q EPS of $0.37 compared with $0.33 a year ago on sales of $653m vs $598m. A week ago, the board of directors declared a regular quarterly dividend of $0.25 per share. Earlier, the Co planned to open 25-30 new stores in China in the next 3yrs. From a chartist view, the shares are still well positively oriented, backed by the upside 20D MA. As long as $54.3 holds on the downside, aims at $60 and $62.5 in extension.

border=0 Antofagasta (GBp 1394 ; -3.06% ; ANTO ; ANTO.L)
On Thursday, Antofagasta may unveil its 3Q pre-tax profit of $716m. Earlier, the Co reported 3Q copper output up by 4.1% QoQ to 140,700 tonnes due to higher production at Los Pelambres. In addition, the stock was upgraded to "buy" from "underperform" at Bank of America. From a technical view, a ST consolidation around the 20D MA is expected as the technical indicators seem to have lost upside momentum.

Selection of those events which may affect the stock prices of international Large Caps


Corporate Calendar November 22nd - November 26th

Date

Market

Company

Event

border=0 Monday, November 22nd

 

GR

Opap

3rd-Quarter results

 

UK

Mitie Group

1st-Half results

 

US

Tyson Foods

4th-Quarter results

 

US

Hewlett Packard

4th-Quarter results

 

US

Analog Devices

4th-Quarter results

border=0 Tuesday, November 23rd

 

FR

Zodiac Aerospace

annual results

 

UK

Mitchells & Butlers

annual results

 

UK

Severn Trent

1st-Half results

 

US

Campbell Soup

1st-Quarter results

 

US

Medtronic

2nd-Quarter results

 

US

Patterson Cos

2nd-Quarter results

border=0 Wednesday, November 24th

 

GR

Public Power Corp

3rd-Quarter results

 

UK

United Utilities

1st-Half results

 

UK

Compass Group

annual results

 

UK

Johnson Matthey

1st-Half results

 

US

Tiffany & Co

3rd-Quarter results

 

US

Deere & Co

4th-Quarter results

border=0 Thursday, November 25th

 

UK

Antofagasta

3rd-Quarter results

 

UK

Pennon Group

1st-Half results

 

UK

Daily Mail & General

annual results

 

UK

Dixons Retail

1st-Half results

border=0 Friday, November 26th

 

GR

Bank Of Piraeus

3rd-Quarter results


Economic Calendar (CET) November 22nd - November 26th

Date

Market

Economic data

Period

Expected

Last

border=0 Monday, November 22nd

16:00:00

EC

Euro-Zone: Consumer Confidence

OCT

-11

-11

border=0 Tuesday, November 23rd

08:45:00

FR

Business Confidence Indicator

NOV

102

102

08:45:00

FR

Production Outlook Indicator

SEP

NA

9

14:30:00

US

GDP (QoQ)

3Q

2.4%

2%

14:30:00

US

GDP Price (QoQ)

3Q

2.2%

2.3%

14:30:00

US

Personal Consumption

3Q

2.4%

2.6%

16:00:00

US

Existing Home Sales (Mln)

OCT

4.43

4.53

border=0 Wednesday, November 24th

14:30:00

US

Durable Goods Orders

OCT

0.1%

3.5%

14:30:00

US

Personal Income

OCT

0.4%

-0.1%

14:30:00

US

Personal Spending

OCT

0.5%

0.2%

14:30:00

US

Initial Jobless Claims (Thsd)

W46

435

439

15:55:00

US

U. of Michigan Confidence

NOV

69.6

69.3

16:00:00

US

New Home Sales (Thsd)

OCT

313.96

307

border=0 Thursday, November 25th

08:45:00

FR

Consumer Confidence

NOV

-34

-34

border=0 Friday, November 26th

 

GE

Retail Sales (MoM)

OCT

NA

-1.7%

 

GE

Consumer Price Index (MoM)

SEP

-0.1%

0.1%

 

GE

CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM)

OCT

-0.1%

0.1%

08:00:00

GE

Import Prices (MoM)

AUG

0%

0.3%

08:45:00

FR

Consumer Spending (MoM)

OCT

-0.4%

1.5%

10:00:00

EC

Euro-zone: M3 (3 mth ave.)

OCT

1.2%

0.8%


 

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