Market Outlook November 15th - November 19th Print

Market Outlook

- WALL STREET:
In the US, equity indices declined 2.20% in average, last week. On the economic front, most of releases were better than expected. However, some blue ship results falling short of expectations darkened the short term outlook. Indeed, University of Michigan Confidence rose to 69.3 (69 expected) from 67.7 in October and Weekly jobless claims fell to 435k (450k expected) from 459k. However, Cisco Systems plummeted after its current quarter forecasts fell short of expectations. As a consequence, technology hardware was the worst performing sectors, with an almost 5% weekly decline, followed shortly by real estate. On the opposite, energy stocks were the only ones ending the week in the positive territory, in average. Technically, the S&P 500 outlook remains bullish with 1240 in sight.

- EUROPE:
In the UK, the FTSE 100 declined 1.34% last week. On the economic front, September industrial production rose 3.8% YoY (+3.6% expected) vs 4.3% in August (revised higher from +4.2%). However, manufacturing production rose only 4.8% YoY (4.9% expected) vs 6% in August and October Nationwide Consumer confidence unexpectedly declined to 52 from 53 (expected unchanged). From a technical point of view, the daily RSI supported by a rising trend line maintains a bullish bias with 5960 and 6038 as next up targets. In the rest of Europe, the CAC 40 declined the most with a 2.19% weekly loss whereas, the DAX eased only 0.29%. Regarding economic releases, Euro-Zone 3Q GDP rose 1.9% YoY, in line with expectations. However, German September industrial production unexpectedly dropped 0.8% MoM (+0.4% expected) vs +1.5% in August (revised lower from +1.7%). All European sectors ended the week in the red except, automobile gaining 2%, basic resources and retail. On the opposite, chemicals stocks declined the most with a 2.25% loss. Technically, on the Stoxx 600, the outlook remains bullish above 260, even so a limited consolidation cannot be ruled out. Next up targets are set at 275 and 280.

 

November 15th - November 19th

Market Round up

 

Weekly chg (%)

Last

Dow Jones

-2.2

11192.6

Nasdaq 100

-2.2

2138

Dax Xetra

-.3

6734.6

Cac 40

-2.2

3831.1

Foreign Exchange

Euro/dollar : the pair is shaping a bullish flag and is approaching its intermediary support. LONG above 1.33 towards 1.4250 & 1.46.

Dollar/yen : the pair is posting a rebound but should strike against its MT bearish channel upper boundary. SHORT @ 83.8 with 80.35 or even 79 in sight.

 

 

Company preview

British Land (GBp 503 ; -2.9% ; BLND ; BLND.L)
On Tuesday, British Land is expected to deliver 1H pre-tax profit of £107m compared to a loss before tax of £113m a year earlier. Recently, the Co teamed up with Oxford Properties Group to construct the Cheesegrater tower in London. The Co's price target was raised to 550p vs 500p with a "buy" rating unchanged at UBS. Technically, the stock is now very close to its key support at 490p. A test should be in sight before any further upsides to 525p.

Wal-Mart (USD 54.13 ; -1.94% ; WMT ; WMT.N)
The same day in the US, Wal-Mart Stores could publish 3Q EPS of $0.9 compared to $0.84 a year ago on sales of $102.4bln vs $99.4bln. Earlier, the Co may bid for Matahari's hypermarket operations worth $1bln in Indonesia, according to Reuters' report. Early this month, the Co announced to offer free shipping on appx. 60,000 online items. From a technical view, the stock retraced back to its 50D MA last week, but is still supported by an upside trend line. Above $53, look for a further rise to $56 at first.

Air France-KLM (EUR 13.15 ; -3.45% ; AF ; AIRF.PA)
Wednesday, Air France-KLM may deliver 2Q net profit of E200m compared to a loss of E147m last year on sales of E6.3bln vs E5.6bln. A week ago, the Co won a 10yr component support contract for 35 of Malaysian Airline System's fleet of B737-800 aircraft. Earlier, the group fined appx. E340m by the European Commission in respect of anti-competitive practices in its cargo business relating mainly to the period between May 2004 and February 2006. Graphically, the stock broke below its 20D MA's support last Friday and is now expected to test its 50D MA (around E12.1) on the downside in the forthcoming days.

Target (USD 54.19 ; -1.74% ; TGT ; TGT.N)
On the same day , Target, the US general merchandise discount stores operator, is expected to release 3Q EPS of $0.68 compared to $0.58 last year on sales of $15.6bln vs $15.3bln. Recently, the Co reported October net retail sales of around $4.6bln, an increase of 2.2% YoY with comparable-store sales up 1.7%, near the low end of its expectations. From a technical point of view, the stock price currently consolidates above a MT ascending trend line. A re-test of $56 is more likely to occur in the short term, if breakout, aims at $58.

border=0 SABMiller (GBp 2022 ; -0.44% ; SAB ; SAB.L)
On Thursday, SABMiller may post 1H pre-tax profit of $1.8bln compared to $1.5bln last year. Last month, the Co announced 1H beer sales up 1%, excluding the effect of acquisitions, beating the +0.5% consensus. Recently, the Co's venture, MillerCoors released 3Q underlying net income, excluding special items, up 36.7% YoY to $334m. Technically, the shares might be shaping "H&S pattern" with the neckline at 1980p. The downside breakout of this level should validate this bearish reversal configuration with targets at 1900p and 1860p.

Selection of those events which may affect the stock prices of international Large Caps

Corporate Calendar November 15th - November 19th

Date

Market

Company

Event

Monday, November 15th

 

FR

Vivendi

3rd-Quarter results

 

GE

Rheinmetall AG

3rd-Quarter results

 

SP

Acciona

3rd-Quarter results

 

SW

Securitas B

3rd-Quarter results

 

US

Lowe's Cos

3rd-Quarter results

 

US

Nordstrom

3rd-Quarter results

Tuesday, November 16th

 

GE

Infineon Technologies

annual results

 

UK

British Land

1st-Half results

 

UK

Burberry Group

1st-Half results

 

US

Wal-Mart

3rd-Quarter results

 

US

Abercrombie & Fitch

3rd-Quarter results

 

US

Home Depot

3rd-Quarter results

Wednesday, November 17th

 

FR

Air France-KLM

2nd-Quarter results

 

UK

ICAP

1st-Half results

 

UK

Experian

1st-Half results

 

US

Target

3rd-Quarter results

 

US

NetApp Inc

2nd-Quarter results

 

US

Applied Materials

4th-Quarter results

Thursday, November 18th

 

UK

SABMiller

1st-Half results

 

NE

Ahold

3rd-Quarter results

 

US

Staples

3rd-Quarter results

 

US

Sears Holdings

3rd-Quarter results

 

US

Dell Computer

3rd-Quarter results

 

US

Gap

3rd-Quarter results

Friday, November 19th

 

GR

Bank Of Piraeus

3rd-Quarter results

 

US

HJ Heinz

2nd-Quarter results


Economic Calendar (CET) November 15th - November 19th

Date

Market

Economic data

Period

Expected

Last

Monday, November 15th

08:45:00

FR

Current Account (Mln)

SEP

NA

-4

11:00:00

EC

Euro-Zone: Trade Balance (Bln)

SEP

0

-4263.6

14:30:00

US

Empire Manufacturing

NOV

13.5

15.7

14:30:00

US

Retail Sales

OCT

0.7%

0.6%

14:30:00

US

Retail Sales less Autos

OCT

0.4%

0.4%

16:00:00

US

Business Inventories

SEP

0.6%

0.6%

Tuesday, November 16th

10:30:00

UK

CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM)

OCT

0.2%

0%

11:00:00

GE

Zew Survey (Econ. Sentiment)

NOV

-5.8

-7.2

11:00:00

GE

Zew Survey (Current Situation)

NOV

74.8

72.6

14:30:00

US

Producer Price Index (MoM)

OCT

0.8%

0.4%

15:15:00

US

Industrial Production (MoM)

OCT

0.3%

-0.2%

15:15:00

US

Industrial Capacity Utilization

OCT

74.9%

74.7%

Wednesday, November 17th

10:30:00

UK

Unemployment Rate (ILO)

SEP

7.71%

7.7%

14:30:00

US

Consumer Price Index (MoM)

OCT

0.3%

0.1%

14:30:00

US

Housing Starts (Thsd)

OCT

599

610

14:30:00

US

Bulding Permits (Thsd)

OCT

572

547

14:30:00

US

CPI - Ex Food & Energy (MoM)

OCT

0.1%

0%

16:30:00

US

Crude Oil Inventories (WoW chg)

W45

NA

-3274

Thursday, November 18th

10:00:00

EC

Euro-Zone: Current Account (Bln) (MoM)

SEP

NA

-10.5

10:30:00

UK

M4 Money Supply (MoM)

OCT

NA

-0.2%

10:30:00

UK

Retail Sales (MoM)

OCT

0.3%

0.1%

14:30:00

US

Initial Jobless Claims (Thsd)

W45

443

435

16:00:00

US

Philadelphia Fed.

NOV

5.5

1

16:00:00

US

Leading Indicators

OCT

0.5%

0.3%

Friday, November 19th

08:00:00

GE

Producer Price Index (MoM)

2Q

0.3%

0.3%

08:45:00

FR

Wages (QoQ)

3Q

NA

0.4%

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