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Market Outlook - Nov 28th - Dec 2nd PDF Print E-mail

Market Outlook

- WALL STREET:
US indices extended their decline last week. On the economic front, the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan final index of consumer sentiment rose to 64.1 in November from 60.9 the previous month. GDP rose at a 2% (+2.5% exp.) annual rate in 3Q. In other news, the Fed required top 31 banks to submit annual capital plan and it will publish stress test results for 19 biggest firms. Looking at US stocks, Gilead Sciences agreed to buy Pharmasset while Alleghany and Transatlantic Holdings agreed to merge. Hewlett Packard posted 4Q EPS of $1.17 vs $1.13 exp. on revenue of $32.1B vs $32.06B exp. Regarding sectors, semiconductors (+7.54%), energy (-6.69%) and diversified financials (-6.16%) underperformed while consumer services, household products and utilities outperformed compared with the indices. Technically, the S&P 500 index is approaching its ST support after successive declines, and may post a limited technical rebound before further downsides to 1140 at first

- EUROPE:

The FTSE 100 consolidated further, dropping 3.7% last week. Graphically, the index is close to its support base around 5040-4960, which could trigger a technical rebound, but its extent should be limited below 5360. Looking at macroeconomic statistics, UK GDP was up 0.5% QoQ in 3Q, as expected. In Europe, the FTSE MIB fell 8.5% while the DAX and the IBEX lost 5.3% and 6.58% respectively. PMI composite was 47.2 in November (46.1 exp.) vs 46.5 in October. Industrial new orders plunged 6.4% in September (-2.7% exp.) vs +1.9% in August. ECB euro-zone current account SA was a surplus of E0.5B, the first since January 2010, vs a deficit of E5B in August. All sectors in Europe lost ground last week, with basic resources, technology, and insurance losing retreating 6.2% while banks fell 5.9%. The Stoxx600 index remains under pressure after the downside breakout of 233 last week, and should challenge its nearest support at 216 in the coming days.

  November 28th - December 2nd

border=0 Market Round up

 

Weekly chg (%)

Last

Dow Jones

-4.6

11231.8

Nasdaq 100

-5.3

2150.9

Dax Xetra

-5.3

5492.9

Cac 40

-4.7

2857

border=0 Foreign Exchange

Euro/dollar : the pair has struck against its new resistance and should face further weakness. SHORT position below 1.42 with 1.3150 & 1.2965 in sight.

Dollar/yen : the pair has struck against its bearish channel upper boundary and remains on the downside. SHORT position below 79.5 with 75.5 & 73.75 in sight.

Company preview

border=0 Tiffany & Co (USD 69.5 ; -7.26% ; TIF ; TIF.N)
Tuesday, Tiffany & Co, the US jewelry retailer, may deliver 3Q EPS of $0.60, up from $0.46 a year earlier and sales of $802M, compared to $682M. Earlier this month, the Co declared a regular quarterly dividend of $0.29 per share. From a chartist view, the stock is still trading below its 50D MA, as well as the $74.5 resistance, therefore, we expect a further pullback towards $65.

border=0 Sage Group (GBp 266.5 ; -0.52% ; SGE ; SGE.L)
Wednesday, the Sage Group, the British accounting software editor, is expected to release 2H pretax profit of ?182M, compared to ?160M in the same period of 2010. On November , the Co announced it completed the sale of its US healthcare division to Vista Equity Partners. Technically, the stock bounced off from its ST support at 262p, and is now challenging its 50D MA before a new rise to 272p.

border=0 Seadrill (NOK 186.2 ; -1.48% ; SDRL ; SDRL.OL)
On the same day, Seadrill Ltd, the offshore deepwater drilling services company, may unveil 3Q EPS of $0.70, vs $0.79 in 3Q10 on revenue of $1.02B vs $1.01B. On November 17, the Co was awarded a two-year extension for the semi-submersible rig West Aquarius. From a chartist point of view, the share price remains well supported by its 50-day moving average, as long as this support holds on the downside, look for further advance to NK195.

border=0 Kroger (USD 22.16 ; 0.23% ; KR ; KR.N)
On Thursday, Kroger Co., the US operator of supermarkets and convenience stores, is expected to release 3Q EPS of $0.31 compared to $0.32 a year earlier on sales of around $20.3B vs $18.7B. Earlier, Fitch Ratings reaffirmed the Co's IDR at "BBB" with a "stable" outlook. From a chartist view, the stock is moving within a MT trading range between $23.7 and $21.4 since early August 2011, and may test the lower boundary in the forthcoming days.

border=0 Berkeley Group (GBp 1222 ; 2.69% ; BKG ; BKGH.L)
Friday, Berkeley Group, a residential and commercial property development company, may announce 1H adjusted EPS of ?0.31 compared with ?0.33 a year ago. Recently, the Co's unit would submit proposal for bidding a ?1.5B project to redevelop Silvertown Quays in the UK. Earlier, the Co was upgraded to "buy" from "neutral" at Goldman Sachs. From a technical point of view, the stock remains well supported by a key level at 1150p, and should post a new bounce to challenge its resistance at 1280p in sight, if breakout, look for further upsides to 1350p.

Selection of those events which may affect the stock prices of international Large Caps


Corporate Calendar November 28th - December 2nd

Date

Market

Company

Event

border=0 Monday, November 28th

 

BE

Colruyt

1st-Half results

 

GR

Alpha Bank AE

3rd-Quarter results

border=0 Tuesday, November 29th

 

FR

Remy Cointreau

1st-Half results

 

GR

National Bank Of Greece

3rd-Quarter results

 

UK

ITE Group

annual results

 

US

Tiffany & Co

3rd-Quarter results

border=0 Wednesday, November 30th

 

NO

Seadrill

3rd-Quarter results

 

UK

Marston's

annual results

 

UK

Northumbrian Water

1st-Half results

 

UK

RPC Group

1st-Half results

 

UK

Sage Group

annual results

 

UK

Shaftesbury Plc

annual results

border=0 Thursday, December 1st

 

UK

Greene King

1st-Half results

 

US

Big Lots

3rd-Quarter results

 

US

H&R Block

2nd-Quarter results

 

US

Kroger

3rd-Quarter results

border=0 Friday, December 2nd

 

SW

Elekta Instrument

2nd-Quarter results

 

UK

Berkeley Group

1st-Half results


Economic Calendar (CET) November 28th - December 2nd

Date

Market

Economic data

Period

Expected

Last

border=0 Monday, November 28th

10:00:00

EC

Euro-zone: M3 (3 mth ave.)

OCT

NA

2.6%

12:59:00

GE

Retail Sales (MoM)

APR

NA

0.3%

12:59:00

GE

Consumer Price Index (MoM)

OCT

NA

0%

12:59:00

GE

CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM)

OCT

NA

0.1%

16:00:00

US

New Home Sales (Thsd)

OCT

311.63

313

border=0 Tuesday, November 29th

10:30:00

UK

M4 Money Supply (MoM)

OCT

NA

-0.4%

11:00:00

EC

Euro-zone: Industrial Confidence

NOV

NA

-6.6

11:00:00

EC

Business Climate Indicator

NOV

NA

-0.18

11:00:00

EC

Euro-Zone: Economic Confidence

NOV

NA

94.8

11:00:00

EC

Euro-Zone: Consumer Confidence

NOV

NA

-20.4

16:00:00

US

Consumer Confidence

NOV

38.44

39.8

border=0 Wednesday, November 30th

09:55:00

GE

Unemployment Change (Thsd)

NOV

NA

10

09:55:00

GE

Unemployment Rate

NOV

NA

7%

11:00:00

EC

Euro-Zone: Unemployment Rate

OCT

NA

10.2%

14:30:00

US

Nonfarm Productivity

3Q

2.6%

3.1%

14:30:00

US

Unit Labor Costs

3Q

-2.1%

-2.4%

15:45:00

US

Chicago Purchasing Manager Index

NOV

58.5

58.4

border=0 Thursday, December 1st

07:30:00

FR

Unemployment Rate

3Q

NA

9.1%

07:30:00

FR

Unemployment Change (Thsd) (QoQ)

3Q

NA

-37

14:30:00

US

Initial Jobless Claims (Thsd)

W47

390

393

16:00:00

US

Construction Spending (MoM)

OCT

0.3%

0.2%

16:00:00

US

ISM - Manufacturing

NOV

51.5

50.8

23:00:00

US

Total Vehicule Sales (Mln)

NOV

13.43

13.2

border=0 Friday, December 2nd

11:00:00

EC

Euro-Zone: PPI (MoM)

OCT

NA

0.3%

14:30:00

US

Unemployment Rate

NOV

9%

9%

14:30:00

US

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Thsd)

NOV

117.03

80

14:30:00

US

Change in Manufact. Payrolls (Thsd)

NOV

8

5


 


This document does not constitute financial advice. If you require such advice, you should seek appropriate professional advice. Internaxx accepts no responsibility for the content of this newsletter.

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