Market outlook - March 29th - April 2nd Print

 

Market Outlook

- US : US indices closed slightly up last week helped by gains in the Auto (+3.36%), Diversified Financials (+3.03%) and Media (+3.03%) sectors. Shares in the Health Care Equipment (-1.18%), Utilities (-1.72%) and Energy (-1.94%) sectors were under pressure however. From a technical point of view, the trend on the S&P 500 remains on the upside but the two consecutive flat close may lead to a limited consolidation above the 1150 support area. The up target remains at the major threshold at 1200. Only a break below 1130 would reinstate the short term downside risk. The US market will be closed Friday.

- EUROPE : European indices rose last week except the SMI in Switzerland (-0.6%). Shares in the Basic Resources (+4.4%), Media (+3.88%) and Travel & Leisure (+3.47%) sectors rose most. The Health Care (-0.31%) sector was the only one to record a week on week decline after the adoption of health care reform in the US. On the STOXX 600, as long as 255 holds the index can continue its up move to 270. European markets will be close Friday and Monday next week.

 

  March 29th - April 2nd

 

border=0 Market Round up

 

Weekly chg (%)

Last

Dow Jones

1

10850.4

Nasdaq 100

1

1952.6

Dax Xetra

2.3

6120.1

Cac 40

1.6

3988.9

border=0 Foreign Exchange

Euro/dollar : The pair has struck against its MT bearish channel upper boundary and remains under pressure. SHORT below 1.38 towards 1.30 & 1.25.

Dollar/yen : The pair has rebounded on its support and is breaking above its ST channel upper boundary. LONG @ 88 with 93.80 or even 97.50 in sight.

Company preview

border=0 Kazakhmys Plc (GBp 1525 ; 2.83% ; KAZ ; KAZ.L)
On Tuesday, Kazakhmys, one of the largest copper producer in the world, is expected to report a FY pretax income of appx. $1.1bln compared to £909m a year ago. In March, the stock was downgraded to "neutral" from "buy" at Goldman Sachs. From a technical point of view, the stock is forming a bullish "flag" pattern with theoretical targets set at 1660p and 1790p with a key level to break at 1560p.

border=0 Swiss Life (CHF 136.7 ; -1.16% ; SLHN ; SLHN.VX)
Swiss Life, an insurer, could report on Tuesday FY net income of appx. SF300m vs SF350m a year ago. Two weeks ago, the Co said it may further reduce cost as it has more room for cost decrease. From a chartist point of view, we favour a continuation of the SF125-SF145 trading range considering the flat 20d and 50d moving averages.

border=0 Banco Popolare (EUR 5.245 ; 2.84% ; BP ; BAPO.MI)
The same day, Banco Popolare, an Italian Bank, is expected to deliver FY net income of appx. E200m vs a loss of E333m a year ago. The stock is unchanged year to date. Graphically, the stock has pushed above its 20d and 50d moving averages and is now moving within an ascending channel. Hence, we favour further upsides towards E5.75.

border=0 SAIC Inc (USD 19.26 ; 0.63% ; SAI ; SAI.N)
The same day, SAIC, a scientific, engineering and technology applications Co, may deliver FY EPS of $1.26 compared to $1.18 a year ago on sales of $10.9bln compared to $10.1bln. In March, the Co announced it had been awarded a three-year prime contract of $625m by the U.S. Navy to develop Department of Defense command and control software, as well as modification and enhancement of existing C2 systems. Graphically, the rising 50D moving average and a rising support line around $18.7 should be able to maintain a bullish bias towards $19.75.

border=0 Research In Motion (USD 75.058 ; 2.74% ; RIMM ; RIM.TO)
On Wednesday, Research In Motion, a mobile communications Co, may report FY EPS of $4.36 vs $3.35 a year ago on sales of $15.2bln vs $11bln the previous year. Last week, China Telecom, one of Chinese largest fixed-line operator, announced its plan to sell Blackberry handsets from May. Technically, the price is moving on the upside, backed by its rising 20d and 50d moving averages. Moreover, the upside breakout of $72 is a positive signal that has opened the path to $80 and even $82.4 (high of September 25 2009 down gap).

Selection of those events which may affect the stock prices of international Large Caps

Corporate Calendar March 29th - April 2nd

Date

Market

Company

Event

border=0 Monday, March 29th

 

IT

Banca Carige

annual results

 

UK

Dana Petroleum Plc

annual results

 

US

Apollo Group

1st-Quarter results

border=0 Tuesday, March 30th

 

FR

Wendel Investissement

annual results

 

FR

Neopost

annual results

 

IT

Banco Popolare

annual results

 

UK

Kazakhmys Plc

annual results

 

US

SAIC Inc

1st-Quarter results

 

SZ

Swiss Life

annual results

border=0 Wednesday, March 31st

 

AS

Vienna Insurance Group

annual results

 

BE

Sofina

annual results

 

US

Micron Technology

2nd-Quarter results

border=0 Thursday, April 1st

   

No major earnings expected

 

border=0 Friday, April 2nd

   

No major earnings expected

 

Economic Calendar (CET) March 29th - April 2nd

Date

Market

Economic data

Period

Expected

Last

border=0 Monday, March 29th

13:30:00

US

Personal Income

FEB

0.1%

0.1%

13:30:00

US

Personal Spending

FEB

0.3%

0.5%

border=0 Tuesday, March 30th

15:00:00

US

Consumer Confidence

MAR

50.07

46

border=0 Wednesday, March 31st

14:45:00

US

Chicago Purchasing Manager Index

MAR

61.5

62.6

15:00:00

US

Factory Orders

FEB

0.5%

1.7%

15:30:00

US

Crude Oil Inventories (WoW chg)

W12

NA

7245

border=0 Thursday, April 1st

13:30:00

US

Initial Jobless Claims (Thsd)

W12

443.7

442

15:00:00

US

Construction Spending (MoM)

FEB

-1.1%

-0.6%

15:00:00

US

ISM - Manufacturing

MAR

57

56.5

15:00:00

US

ISM - Price Paid

MAR

66.4

67

22:00:00

US

Total Vehicule Sales (Mln)

MAR

11.97

10.36

22:00:00

US

Domestic Vehicule Sales (Mln)

MAR

8.67

7.91

border=0 Friday, April 2nd

13:30:00

US

Unemployment Rate

MAR

9.7%

9.7%

13:30:00

US

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Thsd)

MAR

172.44

-36

13:30:00

US

Change in Manufact. Payrolls (Thsd)

MAR

11

1

 

border=0

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