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Market Outlook April 4th - 8th PDF Print E-mail

Market Outlook

- WALL STREET:
US indices rose last week. On the economic front last week, nonfarm payrolls increased by 216,000 workers (+190K expected) in March, while the Conference Board's confidence index dropped to 63.4 in March from 72 the prior month.

In other news, NASDAQ OMX and IntercontinentalExchange have offered a 19% premium to Deutsche Boerse proposal to buy NYSE Euronext. Regarding sectors, almost all the sectors closed into positive territory last week. Telecom Services gained most by 4.15%, followed by healthcare equipment (+2.81%), real estate (+2.64%) and capital goods (+2.44%), while shares in the semiconductors and technology hardware & equipment sectors were under pressure. Technically, the S&P is now expected to challenge its YTD high at 1343 in sight before any further moves.

- EUROPE:
In the UK, the FTSE 100 rose 1.85% last week. The index broke above the 5880 resistance but is still under pressure below 6100. As long as this threshold is not surpassed, the upside potential is limited. On the economic data front, UK's 4Q GDP fell 0.5% QoQ, less than the-0.6% expectation. Euro-Zone CPI estimate was +2.6% YoY in March vs +2.4% a month earlier. In other news, Lloyds was seeking £15B in loans to support its disposal of 600 branches. H&M delivered 1Q net income of SEK2.6B vs SEK3.7B a year ago. Portugal's credit ratings were cut to "BBB-/F3" from "A-/F2" at Fitch and to "BBB-" from "BBB" at S&Ps. Greece was also downgraded to "BB-" from "BB+" by S&P's. The DAX rebounded strongly by 3.36% and the CAC also gained around 2%, whereas, the FTSE MIB and the IBEX closed broadly flat last week. Almost all European sectors entered into positive territory. Automobiles, basic resources, media and chemicals jumped by over 3%, and industrial goods & services and personal & household goods also rose more than 2.5%. Only banks and retail ended slightly down during the week. From a technical view, the Stoxx 600 remains well positively oriented in the short term and should challenge 280 in sight.

Company preview

border=0 Industrivarden (SEK 124.3 ; 4.02% ; INDUA ; INDUa.ST)
On Tuesday, Industrivarden, an investment company with the portfolio holdings of listed Nordic industrial companies, may release its 1Q results. Last year, the Co posted its 1Q net income of appx. SEK4.1B. From a technical view, the stock broke above its key horizontal level at SEK110 last week with a bullish gap. As long as SEK110 holds on the downside, a further up move is more likely in sight to SEK120 and SEK123 in extension.

border=0 Monsanto (USD 73.17 ; 3.41% ; MON ; MON.N)
On Wednesday in the US, Monsanto is expected to announce 2Q EPS of $1.8 compared to $1.70 a year earlier on sales of $4.1B vs around $3.9B. Earlier, the Co and Sapphire Energy agreed to enter a multi-year collaboration that will leverage Sapphire's algae-based research platform to discover genes that could be applied to agriculture, particularly in the field of yield and stress. Technically, the stock accelerated on the upside following the breakout of a ST bearish trend line. Next up targets are set at $76 and then to $80.

border=0 Bed Bath & Beyond (USD 48.71 ; 3.02% ; BBBY ; BBBY.O)
The same day, Bed Bath & Beyond Inc, the US retailing giant, could post 4Q EPS of $0.98 compared to $0.86 a year ago on sales of around $2.4B vs $2.2B. From a technical point of view, the Co is bouncing off from its support at $45 and is now approaching its key resistance zone around $50-$51. Hence, a ST consolidation cannot be ruled out before any further upsides to $53 at first.

border=0 Constellation Brands (USD 20.5 ; 5.56% ; STZ ; STZ.N)
On Thursday, Constellation Brands is expected to deliver 4Q EPS of $0.26 compared with $0.27 a year ago on sales of $734M vs $709M. From a chartist view, the stock jumped above its 20D & 50D MAs last week. but is now very close to its new resistance at $21. A test should be in sight before any further advance to $22 and $22.5.

border=0 Raiffeisen Intl Bank Holding (EUR 40 ; -2.87% ; RBI ; RBI.VI)
On Friday, Raiffeisen Intl Bank Holding, the bank holding company that operates in Austria and Central and Eastern Europe, may release FY net income of E703M compared with E212M a year ago. Recently, the Co was downgraded to "hold" from "buy" at Citigroup. Earlier, the bank's Romanian unit reported FY10 net income up 12% YoY to E83M. Graphically, the stock is still under pressure below its declining 50D MA, and should post further weakness to E38 and E36.5 after a ST consolidation.

Selection of those events which may affect the stock prices of international Large Caps


Market Round up

 

Weekly chg (%)

Last

Dow Jones

1.3

12376.7

Nasdaq 100

1.1

2342.9

Dax Xetra

3.4

7179.8

Cac 40

2.1

4054.8

Foreign Exchange

Euro/dollar : the pair remains on the upside and is challenging its resistance, the RSI is well directed. LONG above 1.34 towards 1.4250 & 1.4450.

Dollar/yen : the pair is pulling back on its new resistance ahead of a new weakness. SHORT below 84.50 with 80.35or even 79 in sight.

Corporate Calendar April 4th - April 8th

Date

Market

Company

Event

border=0 Monday, April 4th

   

No major earnings expected

 

border=0 Tuesday, April 5th

 

SW

Industrivarden

1st-Quarter results

border=0 Wednesday, April 6th

 

US

Monsanto

2nd-Quarter results

 

US

Bed Bath & Beyond

4th-Quarter results

border=0 Thursday, April 7th

 

US

Constellation Brands

4th-Quarter results

border=0 Friday, April 8th

 

AS

Raiffeisen Intl Bank Holding

annual results

INTERNAXX

This document does not constitute financial advice. If you require such advice, you should seek appropriate professional advice.

 

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