Market Outlook March 1st - March 5th Print

Market Outlook

- US : US indices consolidated last week after a sharp bounce the previous week.
Shares in the Auto (+3.35%), Retailing (+1.93%) and Diversified Financials (+1.91%) sectors gained most while shares in the Energy (-2.07%), Utilities (-2.41%) and Materials (-2.43%) sectors were under pressure. From a technical point of view the rise above 1080 has triggered a bounce that may lead the S&P 500 to its next strong resistance at 1130 while 1150 is key to break to see further medium term gains. Only a break below 1074 would reinstate the short term downside risk.

- EUROPE : European indices fell more relative to the US hurt by declines in the Oil & Gas (-3.43%), Basic Resources (-3.92%) and Automobiles & Parts (-4.07%) sectors. On the STOXX 600, the index is expected to test a strong resistance area around 254/255 and only a break below 240 would call for a new down leg to 233.

March 1st - March 5th

Market Round up

 

Weekly chg (%)

Last

Dow Jones

-.7

10325.3

Nasdaq 100

-.3

1818.7

Dax Xetra

-2.2

5598.5

Cac 40

-1.6

3708.8

Foreign Exchange

Euro/dollar : The pair has rebounded on its support but remains under pressure as the RSI is badly directed. SHORT below 1.4250 towards 1.34 & 1.30.

Dollar/yen : The pair is rebounding on its support and should reach its next resistance, the RSI is turning up. LONG @ 88 with 93.80 or even 97.50 in sight.

Company preview

Bouygues (EUR 34.22 ; -2.65% ; EN ; BOUY.PA)
On Tuesday, Bouygues could report a FY09 sales of appx. E31.bln vs E32.7bln a year ago and net income around E1.3bln vs E1.5bln a year ago, after the closing bell. Last week, its real-estate unit leased 10,200 square meters of offices near Paris to Publicis Groupe. Technically, the stock stands below its declining 20D MA but E33.2 is key support to break to see further medium term decline. Hence, below E35.5, the trend remains bearish.

Fresnillo (GBp 750.5 ; -3.47% ; FRES ; FRES.L)
Fresnillo, the world's largest primary silver producer and Mexico's second largest gold producer, is expected to report Wednesday a FY pre-tax profit of appx. $425m vs $267m a year ago. On January, The Co reported 4Q attributable silver production of 9.36m ounces, up 10% YoY and a record quarterly attributable gold production of 80.080 ounces, up 26% year on year and above expectations. From a chartist point of view, the stock bounced on a MT key level at 650 but is still capped by a bearish trend line since last November. We expect a ST consolidation before an up move to test the 800p resistance at first.

Costco Wholesale (USD 60.97 ; -0.28% ; COST ; COST.O)
On Thursday, Costco Wholesale, a Co operating warehouses worldwide may deliver 2Q EPS of $0.71 vs $0.55 a year ago on sales of $18.5bln vs $16.8bln. The Co's corporate Credit Rating was upgraded to "A+" From "A" at Standard's Poor's. From a technical point of view, the upside breakout of its previous November 2009 high is a positive signal. Even though a consolidation cannot be ruled out, the trend is clearly on the upside, hence further rise is expected towards $63.2 and $65.

border=0 Marvell Technology (USD 19.32 ; -3.59% ; MRVL ; MRVL.O)
The same day, Marvell Technology, a Co operating in integrated silicon solutions, is expected to unveil a 4Q EPS of $0.36 vs a LPS of $0.11 a year ago on sales of appx. $840m vs $513m. Last Thursday, the Co was rated "overweight" at JPMorgan with a target price of $25. Technically, the price remains supported by a rising support line and the 100D and 50D MAs are still heading up, a further pullback is more likely to $20.4 and $21.7 in the forthcoming days.

GDF Suez (EUR 27.11 ; -1.61% ; GSZ ; GSZ.PA)
GDF Suez, the French energy provider, may report on Thursday a FY net income of appx. E4.4bln vs E4.9bln a year ago. Last week, Bloomberg reported the Co may be considering selling its U.K. North Sea assets. February 19th, the Co was upgraded to "overweight" from "neutral" at JPMorgan. Graphically, the price collapsed last week after failing to break above E28.2. As the price is still under pressure below this level, a new down leg seems likely towards E26 and even E24.7.

Selection of those events which may affect the stock prices of international Large Caps


Corporate Calendar March 1st - March 5th

Date

Market

Company

Event

Monday, March 1st

 

 

FR

Vivendi

annual results

 

IT

Luxottica Group

annual results

 

UK

Pearson

annual results

 

UK

HSBC Holdings

annual results

 

SP

Sacyr Vallehermoso

annual results

 

US

Edison Int.

4th-Quarter results

Tuesday, March 2nd

 

 

BE

UCB

annual results

 

BE

Groupe Bruxelles Lambert

annual results

 

FR

Bouygues

annual results

 

UK

Fresnillo

annual results

 

UK

Provident Financial

annual results

 

US

Staples

1st-Quarter results

Wednesday, March 3rd

 

 

FR

Scor

annual results

 

FR

Vinci

annual results

 

GE

Adidas

annual results

 

UK

Standard Chartered

annual results

 

SZ

Adecco

annual results

 

SZ

Holcim

annual results

Thursday, March 4th

 

 

BE

Anheuser-Busch InBev

annual results

 

FR

Essilor

annual results

 

GE

Beiersdorf

annual results

 

GE

Linde

annual results

 

NE

Ahold

annual results

 

US

Costco Wholesale

1st-Quarter results

border=0 Friday, March 5th

 

 

BE

Ackermans

annual results

 

FR

Veolia Environnement

annual results

 

UK

United Business Media

annual results

 

UK

Michael Page International

annual results

 

UK

WPP Group

annual results

 

NE

Fugro Nv-Cva

annual results


Economic Calendar (CET) March 1st - March 5th

Date

Market

Economic data

Period

Expected

Last

Monday, March 1st

 

14:30:00

US

Personal Income

JAN

0.4%

0.4%

14:30:00

US

Personal Spending

JAN

0.4%

0.2%

16:00:00

US

Construction Spending (MoM)

JAN

-0.5%

-1.2%

16:00:00

US

ISM - Manufacturing

FEB

58.1

58.4

16:00:00

US

ISM - Price Paid

FEB

65.6

70

Tuesday, March 2nd

 

23:00:00

US

Total Vehicule Sales (Mln)

FEB

10.56

10.82

23:00:00

US

Domestic Vehicule Sales (Mln)

FEB

7.95

8.19

Wednesday, March 3rd

 

16:00:00

US

ISM - Non Manufacturing

FEB

50.9

50.5

16:30:00

US

Crude Oil Inventories (WoW chg)

W8

NA

3034

Thursday, March 4th

 

14:30:00

US

Initial Jobless Claims (Thsd)

W8

NA

496

14:30:00

US

Nonfarm Productivity

4Q

6.2%

6.2%

14:30:00

US

Unit Labor Costs

4Q

-4.4%

-4.4%

16:00:00

US

Factory Orders

JAN

1.5%

1%

 Friday, March 5th

 

14:30:00

US

Unemployment Rate

FEB

9.8%

9.7%

14:30:00

US

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Thsd)

FEB

-29.38

-20

14:30:00

US

Change in Manufact. Payrolls (Thsd)

FEB

-19

11

21:00:00

US

Consumer Credit (Bln)

JAN

-3.874

-1.7


 


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