Market Outlook March 15th - March 19th Print

 

 

 

Market Outlook

- US : US indices rose last week helped by gains in the Real Estate (+3.7%), Transportation (+3.39%) and Consumer Services (+3.02%) sectors. Shares in the Food, Beverage & Tobacco. (-0.79%), Food & Staples Retail. (-0.91%) and Health Care Equipment (-1.14%) fell week on week. The S&P 500 ended the week close to its last 52 week high and an intermediate resistance at 1150. From a technical point of view the upside momentum should hold and 1150 bypassed to open the way to 1200. Only a break below 1112 (rising 50d moving average) would reinstate the short term downside risk.

- EUROPE : European indices moved inline with the US helped by modest week on week gains in the Auto (+2.34%), Technology (+2.02%) and Insurance (+1.47%) sectors. On the STOXX 600, the break above the 254/255 area should lead the index to 261.39, the last 52 week high. Only a break below 250.8 (20d moving average) would call for a larger consolidation.

 

  March 15th - March 19th

 Market Round up

 

Weekly chg (%)

Last

Dow Jones

.6

10624.7

Nasdaq 100

1.9

1924.4

Dax Xetra

1.2

5945.1

Cac 40

.4

3927.4

Foreign Exchange

Euro/dollar : The pair remains within a bearish channel and is challenging its support, the RSI is capped by a declining trend line. SHORT below 1.4250 towards 1.34 & 1.30.

Dollar/yen : The pair is rebounding on its support as the RSI is turning up. LONG @ 88 with 93.80 or even 97.50 in sight.

Company preview

UniCredit (EUR 2.0325 ; 1.12% ; UCG ; CRDI.MI)
On Tuesday, UniCredit is expected to report a FY net income of appx. E1.6bln vs E4bln a year ago. the stock was rated recently "buy" at BofA-ML. From a technical point of view, prices pushed above a declining trend line in place since January 2010. As long as the stock remains above its key MT support threshold @ E1.85, we favour a bounce towards E2.15 and even E2.36.

Nike (USD 69.9 ; 2.31% ; NKE ; NKE.N)
Nike, the world's leading designer, marketer and distributor of athletic footwear, apparel, equipment and accessories, could report a 3Q EPS of $0.88 vs $1 a year ago on sales of $4.6bln vs $4.4bln, after the closing bell. Last month, Goldman Sachs added the Co to its "conviction buy" list. Last week, the Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.27 per share on the Co's outstanding Class A and Class B common stock. Technically, the stock is clearly on the upside but approaching a key resistance threshold @ $70.6 which refers to its highest level ever. A clear upside breakout of this level would trigger a bullish acceleration.

Fedex Corp (USD 86.18 ; -0.89% ; FDX ; FDX.N)
On Wednesday, Fedex, a Co operating in transportation, business and related information services, may deliver a 3Q EPS of $0.72 vs $0.31 a year ago on sales of appx. $8.4bln vs $8.1bln. Last week, the Co announced that it would cut the $2bln capital budget for its express transportation unit because of local labor disputes. From a chartist point of view, the rising 20d and 50d moving averages call for a new test of $88.5. Only a breakout of this level would initiate a new up leg towards $92.6.

Danisco (DKK 397.8 ; 1.48% ; DCO ; DCO.CO)
The same day, Danisco, a Co providing food ingredients enzymes and bio-based solutions, is expected to deliver 3Q sales of appx. DKK3.1bln, flat YoY and EPS around DKK2.9 vs DKK4.16 a year ago. The Co and DuPont plan to open a US commercial-scale plant which would produce 25m to 50m gallons of ethanol in 2013. Graphically, the stock is on the upside and technical indicators do not post any bearish divergence. Hence, we favour further upside towards DKK408 and even DKK425.

Intesa Sanpaolo (EUR 2.8475 ; 0.35% ; ISP ; ISP.MI)
On Thursday, Intesa Sanpaolo may report a FY net income of appx. E2.6bln vs E2.5bln a year ago. The bank's fund-management unit may initiate an initial public offering in June according to Il Messaggero. Graphically, the stock is currently testing a key resistance around E2.9. As long as this level holds on the upside, a further pull back towards E2.75 and E2.70 may occur as the 50d moving average remains on the downside.

Selection of those events which may affect the stock prices of international Large Caps


Corporate Calendar March 15th - March 19th

Date

Market

Company

Event

Monday, March 15th

 

 

AS

Atrium European Real Estate

annual results

 

SZ

Partners Group

annual results

 

SZ

Aryzta AG

1st-Half results

Tuesday, March 16th

 

 

FR

Zodiac Aerospace

1st-Half results

 

IT

UniCredit

annual results

 

UK

Close Brothers

1st-Half results

 

UK

G4S Plc

annual results

 

SZ

Lindt & Spruengli

annual results

 

US

Discover Financial Services

4th-Quarter results

Wednesday, March 17th

 

 

FR

Groupe Bourbon

annual results

 

GE

Lanxess

annual results

 

IT

Enel

annual results

 

IT

Generali

annual results

 

SP

Inditex

annual results

 

US

Nike

1st-Quarter results

Thursday, March 18th

 

 

DE

Danisco

3rd-Quarter results

 

GE

Heidelbergcement

annual results

 

UK

Aegis

annual results

 

US

Fedex Corp

1st-Quarter results

 

US

Cintas

1st-Quarter results

 

SZ

Baloise Holding

annual results

Friday, March 19th

 

 

IT

Unione di Banche Italiane

annual results

 

IT

Terna

annual results

 

IT

Intesa Sanpaolo

annual results


Economic Calendar (CET) March 15th - March 19th

Date

Market

Economic data

Period

Expected

Last

Monday, March 15th

 

14:30:00

US

Empire Manufacturing

MAR

21.04

24.91

15:15:00

US

Industrial Production (MoM)

FEB

0%

0.9%

15:15:00

US

Industrial Capacity Utilization

FEB

72.6%

72.6%

19:00:00

US

NAHB Housing Market

MAR

17

17

Tuesday, March 16th

 

14:30:00

US

Housing Starts (Thsd)

FEB

569

591

14:30:00

US

Bulding Permits (Thsd)

FEB

606

622

20:15:00

US

Fed: Rates decision

 

0.25%

0.25%

Wednesday, March 17th

 

14:30:00

US

Producer Price Index (MoM)

FEB

0%

1.4%

14:30:00

US

PPI - Ex Food & Energy (MoM)

FEB

0.1%

0.3%

16:30:00

US

Crude Oil Inventories (WoW chg)

W10

NA

143

Thursday, March 18th

 

14:30:00

US

Initial Jobless Claims (Thsd)

W10

453.2

462

14:30:00

US

Consumer Price Index (MoM)

FEB

0.1%

0.2%

14:30:00

US

CPI - Ex Food & Energy (MoM)

FEB

0.1%

-0.1%

16:00:00

US

Philadelphia Fed.

MAR

17.1

17.6

16:00:00

US

Leading Indicators

FEB

0.1%

0.3%

Friday, March 19th

 

   

No major economic data expected

     
 
 


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