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Market Outlook June 27th - July 1st PDF Print E-mail

 

 

Market Outlook

- WALL STREET:
US indices closed mixed with the DJIA and the S&P500 losing 0.58% and 0.24% respectively while the Nasdaq 100 rose 1.1%. On the economic data front, durable goods orders rose 1.9% (+1.5% expected) in May. Also, 1Q GDP was revised up to +1.9% from +1.8%. In other news, new home sales fell 2.1% in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 319.000 (-4% and 310K expected). Also, the FOMC kept its interest rates at 0.25% as expected. Regarding sectors, automobiles and parts rose most (+4.33%) followed by materials (+2.35%) and retailing (+2.1%) while household and personal products, banks, food were under pressure and drop by over 1.5%. Technically, the S&P500 index struck against its 20-day moving average and is resuming its down trend. A test of the 1250 mark is likely in the forthcoming days.

- EUROPE:
In the UK, the FTSE 100 retreated 0.3% last week. From a chartist point of view, the index is still capped by its 20-day moving average and the daily MACD remains negative below its signal line. The risk remains to the downside towards the next support threshold around the 5600 mark. Last week, the Bank of England maintained its main rate unchanged at 0.5%. In Europe, most sectors ended in negative territory with banks (-4.32%), insurance (-3.09%), utilities (-2.27%) and financial services (-2.26%) posting the weakest performance over the week while utomobiles (+3.64, travel and leisure (+1.7%) and basic resources (+1.34%) rose most last week. In other economic news, Euro zone industrial new orders gained 8.6% in April MoM (+14% expected) vs a 14.1% increase the month before while Euro-zone PMI composite fell to 53.6 in June MoM (55.2 expected) vs 55.8 in May. The Stoxx 600 remains under pressure. Technically speaking, the daily MACD failed to push above its signal line, calling for a further weakness in the days ahead. The downside breakout of a rising trend line drawn from November 2010 would open the way to further decline towards 255.

 

June 27th - July 1st

Market Round up

 

Weekly chg (%)

Last

Dow Jones

-.6

11934.6

Nasdaq 100

1.1

2217.1

Dax Xetra

-.6

7121.4

Cac 40

-1

3784.8

Foreign Exchange

Euro/dollar : the pair has rebounded on its new support and remains on the upside. LONG above 1.3950 towards 1.47 & 1.49.

Dollar/yen : the pair has validated a bearish flag and is challenging its support. SHORT below 82.5 with 79.50 or even 78.25 in sight.

 

Company preview

Colruyt (EUR 37.84 ; -0.56% ; COLR ; COLRt.BR)
On Monday, Colruyt, the retailer. is expected to release FY adjusted net income of E354.2M vs E329.6M a year earlier on revenues of E7.29B vs E6.75B. Last January, the Co posted 3Q sales up 8.2% to E1.94B, benefiting from store openings and rising food prices.Sales at the retail unit increased 9.1% vs +8.1% in the previous quarter. Late February, the stock was initiated "overweight" at Morgan Stanley. Technically, the stock continues to move downward, and the upside potential should be limited by its bearish 20D MA. Below E39, look for a new decline towards E36.

Nike (USD 81.18 ; 0.09% ; NKE ; NKE.N)
The same day in the US, Nike, the world's largest sporting goods company, may announce 4Q EPS of around $1.06 vs $1.27 a year ago on sales of $5.53B vs $5.08B. The analysts from Jefferies advised last week to buy Nike calls ahead on post-earnings rally potential. From a chartist view, the strong support level at $80 may call for a ST technical rebound to $85 in the forthcoming days. The stock trades just above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages.

Stagecoach Group (GBp 251 ; 3.8% ; SGC ; SGC.L)
On Wednesday, Stagecoach Group, the transport services company, is expected to publish FY adjusted net income of £165.7M vs £111.7M a year ago, on sales of £2.38B vs £2.16B a year earlier. Early June, the stock was rated new "overweight" at JPMorgan. Technically, the stock is trading on its year-high levels an is still above its 20-50 an 100 days moving averages. As long as 239 is support, look for further bullish move towards 260 and 270.

General Mills (USD 36.85 ; -2.9% ; GIS ; GIS.N)
On the same day, in the US, General Mills could deliver 4Q EPS of appx. $0.52 compared to $0.42 a year earlier on sales of $3.68B vs $3.57B. On June 14th, the Co confirmed it expects to report growth in FY sales and earnings in line with its long-term model. From a chartist view, the stock remains under pressure below its ST declining moving average. A break below $37 would trigger a slump towards $36.

Constellation Brands (USD 20.82 ; -1.47% ; STZ ; STZ.N)
On Thursday, Constellation Brands, the alcohol beverage company, may post 1Q EPS of $0.38 compared to $0.36 a year earlier on sales of around $622.7M. Recently, Fitch Ratings has affirmed Constellation Brands Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB'. The rating outlook was revised to positive from stable. From a technical view, the stock trades just above its major support at $20.8. As long as it is not broken down, look for a bounce towards $22.

Selection of those events which may affect the stock prices of international Large Caps


Corporate Calendar June 27th - July 1st

Date

Market

Company

Event

Monday, June 27th

 

BE

Colruyt

annual results

 

US

Nike

4th-Quarter results

Tuesday, June 28th

   

No major release expected

 

Wednesday, June 29th

 

UK

Stagecoach Group

annual results

 

US

Family Dollar Stores

3rd-Quarter results

 

US

General Mills

4th-Quarter results

 

US

Monsanto

3rd-Quarter results

Thursday, June 30th

 

UK

Greene King

annual results

 

US

Apollo Group

3rd-Quarter results

 

US

Constellation Brands

1st-Quarter results

 

US

Darden Restaurants

4th-Quarter results

 

US

McCormick

2nd-Quarter results

Friday, July 1st

   

No major release expected

 


Economic Calendar (CET) June 27th - July 1st

Date

Market

Economic data

Period

Expected

Last

Monday, June 27th

13:59:00

GE

Import Prices (MoM)

SEP

NA

0.3%

13:59:00

GE

Retail Sales (MoM)

APR

0.7%

0.3%

14:30:00

US

Personal Income

MAY

0.4%

0.4%

14:30:00

US

Personal Spending

MAY

0.1%

0.4%

Tuesday, June 28th

10:30:00

UK

GDP (QoQ)

1Q

NA

0.5%

10:30:00

UK

Current Account (Bln)

1Q

NA

-10.488

12:59:00

GE

Consumer Price Index (MoM)

MAY

NA

0%

12:59:00

GE

CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM)

MAY

NA

-0.2%

16:00:00

US

Consumer Confidence

JUN

61.78

60.8

Wednesday, June 29th

07:30:00

FR

GDP (QoQ)

2Q

NA

1%

10:30:00

UK

M4 Money Supply (MoM)

MAY

NA

0.1%

10:30:00

UK

Net Consumer Credit (Mln)

MAY

NA

0.5

11:00:00

EC

Business Climate Indicator

JUN

NA

0.99

11:00:00

EC

Euro-Zone: Consumer Confidence

JUN

NA

-10

16:30:00

US

Crude Oil Inventories (WoW chg)

W25

NA

-1711

Thursday, June 30th

08:45:00

FR

Consumer Spending (MoM)

MAY

NA

-1.6%

08:45:00

FR

Producer Price Index (MoM)

MAY

NA

0.8%

09:55:00

GE

Unemployment Change (Thsd)

JUN

-14.7

-8

09:55:00

GE

Unemployment Rate

JUN

NA

7%

10:00:00

EC

Euro-zone: M3 (3 mth ave.)

MAY

NA

2.1%

15:45:00

US

Chicago Purchasing Manager Index

JUN

54.8

56.6

Friday, July 1st

11:00:00

EC

Euro-Zone: Unemployment Rate

MAY

NA

9.9%

15:55:00

US

U. of Michigan Confidence

JUN

72.5

71.8

16:00:00

US

Construction Spending (MoM)

MAY

0.1%

0.4%

16:00:00

US

ISM - Manufacturing

JUN

51.9

53.5

16:00:00

US

ISM - Price Paid

JUN

NA

76.5

23:00:00

US

Total Vehicule Sales (Mln)

JUN

11.84

11.76


 

This document does not constitute financial advice. If you require such advice, you should seek appropriate professional advice.

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