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Market Outlook July 11th - July 15th PDF Print E-mail

 

 

Market Outlook

- WALL STREET:
US indices rose last week. On the economic front, jobless rate unexpectedly increased to 9.2% in June (9.1% estimated) from 9.1% in May. Wholesale inventories rose 1.8% in May, better than +0.7% expected and +1.1% in the prior month. Regarding sectors, almost all sectors closed higher last week, except for insurance (-0.2%) Retailing posted the best performance and climbed 4.67%, followed by technological hardware and equipment (+3.71%), real estate (+3.7%) and software (+3.41%). Technically, the S&P500 index is close to its major resistance at 1370 following the latest successive bounces. A consolidation or a pullback seems likely in sight towards its nearest support at 1317.

- EUROPE:
In the UK, the FTSE 100 was slightly up, gaining 0.01% over the week. From a chartist view, the index is challenging the upper boundary of its MT range between 6100 and 5600, and a ST consolidation cannot be ruled out before further advance. On the economic front, UK PPI output increased 0.1% in June, the slowest pace in nine months, vs +0.2% in May. In Europe, most indices closed lower. The IBEX fell 5.28% while the FTSE MIB tumbled 7.15%. In other European news, German trade balance was a surplus of E14.8B in May MoM (+12.2B expected) vs a surplus of E10.8B in April (revised from +10.9B). ECB raised its benchmark interest rate to 1.5%, as expected, vs 1.25% previously. Regarding the stocks, Deutsche Boerse shareholders approved the bid on NYSE Euronext. Looking at sectors, banks retreated 5.73%, while construction and materials (-3.17%), utilities (-2.26%) and media (-1.99) also lost ground. Personal and household goods gained most (+2.62%) followed by food and beverage (+2.16%) and health care (+2.16%). Graphically, the Stoxx 600 validated a ST bottom pattern, and should post a new rally to 281.7 and then to 285, as long as 262 holds on the downside.

 

  July 11th - July 15th

Market Round up

 

Weekly chg (%)

Last

Dow Jones

2

12657.2

Nasdaq 100

3.5

2405.9

Dax Xetra

-.2

7402.7

Cac 40

-2.3

3913.6

Foreign Exchange

Euro/dollar : the pair has struck against a declining trend line but stands above its support. LONG above 1.3950 towards 1.47 & 1.49.

Dollar/yen : the pair is posting a rebound on its support but remains under pressure. SHORT below 82.5 with 79.50 or even 78.25 in sight.

Company preview

border=0 Alcoa (USD 16.38 ; 3.28% ; AA ; AA.N)
On July 11, Alcoa is expected to report after market 2Q adjusted EPS of $0.33 vs $0.13 a year earlier on sales of $6.32B vs $5.19B the year before. The Co announced last week it will introduce an advanced recycling and casting process to reduce energy consumption and GHG emissions as part of a $21 million expansion of B&C Research. The Alcoa investment will help protect more than 350 existing positions. Technically, the stock trades above its 20 and 50 day MA, and has crossed above its upper daily Bollinger band. Further upside is expected towards $17.3 and $17.8.

border=0 ASML Holding (EUR 26.22 ; 0.92% ; ASML ; ASML.AS)
On July 13, ASML, the specialist of semiconductor manufacturing, should release 2Q adjusted EPS of E0.93 vs E0.55 in 2Q10 on sales of E1.51B vs E1.069 a year earlier. In April, ASML said orders fell 27% in 1Q because of the effects on Japan earthquake on some chipmakers. The Co had booked systems worth E845m in 1Q vs bookings worth E1.17B a year earlier. QoQ, orders fell 63%. ASML predicted then a 2Q order intake of between E900M and E1B. From a chartist point of view, the stock trades into a small bullish channel and above its 20 day MA. Short term bounce is expected towards E27 and E27.7.

border=0 Suedzucker (EUR 25.76 ; 3.93% ; SZU ; SZUG.DE)
On July 14, Suedzucker, the sugar maker, may post 1Q adjusted EPS of E0.48 vs E0.38 a year earlier on sales of E1.60B vs E1.53B for its 1Q11. On June 22, the Co said that For total financial year 2011/12 it expects an increase of group revenues to around E6.5B (previous year: 6.2). The boost in earnings will be driven by the CropEnergies and fruit segments, but predominantly by the sugar segment. Technically, the stock made a new year high on July 8. Technical indicators are still bullish and don't show any reversal signs. Further upside is expected towards E27 and E28.

border=0 Google (USD 531.99 ; 5.06% ; GOOG ; GOOG.O)
The same day, Google might report 2Q adjusted EPS of $7.86 vs $5.71 a year earlier on sales of $6.54B vs $6.82B the year before. According to BrightEdge, an analysis of the front pages of the Web’s 10,000 largest sites shows a 33 percent spike in placement of the new Google +1 button in just the last few weeks. The report also shows that Facebook still enjoys a two-to-one lead in plug-in placement on these large sites over competing social networks. Technically, the stock still trades above its 20 and 50 day MA. ST bounce is expected towards $550 and $575.

border=0 Citigroup (USD 42.03 ; 0.94% ; C ; C.N)
On July 15, Citigroup is expected to release 2Q adjusted EPS of $0.97 vs $0.9 on 2Q10, on sales of $19.88B vs $28.45B the year before. According to China Knowledge, CEO Andrew Au said the Co plans to increase its outlet number in China by 50% this year. From a chartist point of view, the stock still trades above its 20 and 50 day MA. ST bounce is expected towards $43.1 and $44.

Selection of those events which may affect the stock prices of international Large Caps


Corporate Calendar July 11th - July 15th

Date

Market

Company

Event

Monday, July 11th

 

SW

Getinge

2nd-Quarter results

 

US

Alcoa

2nd-Quarter results

 

US

Novellus Systems

2nd-Quarter results

Tuesday, July 12th

 

NO

DNB Holding

2nd-Quarter results

 

SW

Castellum

2nd-Quarter results

 

SW

Investor

2nd-Quarter results

 

US

Fastenal

2nd-Quarter results

Wednesday, July 13th

 

NE

ASML Holding

1st-Half results

 

UK

SuperGroup

annual results

 

US

Marriott International

2nd-Quarter results

 

US

Yum! Brands

2nd-Quarter results

Thursday, July 14th

 

GE

Suedzucker

1st-Quarter results

 

NO

Storebrand

2nd-Quarter results

 

UK

London Stock Exchange

1st-Quarter results

 

US

Google

2nd-Quarter results

 

US

JP Morgan Chase

2nd-Quarter results

 

US

Progressive

2nd-Quarter results

Friday, July 15th

 

GE

Porsche Pref

1st-Half results

 

SW

SKF

2nd-Quarter results

 

US

Citigroup

2nd-Quarter results

 

US

First Horizon National

2nd-Quarter results

 

US

Genuine Parts

2nd-Quarter results

 

US

Mattel

2nd-Quarter results


Economic Calendar (CET) July 11th - July 15th

Date

Market

Economic data

Period

Expected

Last

Monday, July 11th

13:59:00

GE

Wholesale Price Index (MoM)

SEP

NA

0%

Tuesday, July 12th

07:30:00

FR

Consumer Price Index (MoM)

JUN

NA

0.1%

08:00:00

GE

Consumer Price Index (MoM)

JUN

NA

0.1%

08:45:00

FR

Current Account (Mln)

MAY

NA

-4.8

10:30:00

UK

CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM)

JUN

NA

0.2%

10:30:00

UK

Trade Balance Non EU25 (Mln GBP)

MAY

NA

-4339

14:30:00

US

Trade Balance (Bln)

MAY

-43.7

-43.7

Wednesday, July 13th

10:30:00

UK

Unemployment Rate (ILO)

MAY

NA

7.7%

11:00:00

EC

Euro-Zone: Industrial Production (MoM)

MAY

NA

0.4%

20:00:00

US

Monthly Budget Satement (Bln)

JUN

NA

-57.6

Thursday, July 14th

11:00:00

EC

Euro-Zone: CPI (MoM)

JUN

NA

0%

14:30:00

US

Producer Price Index (MoM)

JUN

-0.2%

0.2%

14:30:00

US

Retail Sales

JUN

0%

-0.2%

14:30:00

US

Retail Sales less Autos

JUN

0.1%

0.3%

14:30:00

US

PPI - Ex Food & Energy (MoM)

JUN

0.2%

0.2%

16:00:00

US

Business Inventories

MAY

0.7%

0.8%

Friday, July 15th

11:00:00

EC

Euro-Zone: Trade Balance (Bln)

MAY

NA

-4056.2

14:30:00

US

Consumer Price Index (MoM)

JUN

-0.1%

0.2%

14:30:00

US

Empire Manufacturing

JUL

4.5

-7.8

15:15:00

US

Industrial Production (MoM)

JUN

0.39%

0.1%

15:15:00

US

Industrial Capacity Utilization

JUN

76.4%

76.7%

15:55:00

US

U. of Michigan Confidence

JUN

72.6

71.5


 

This document does not constitute financial advice. If you require such advice, you should seek appropriate professional advice. Internaxx accepts no responsibility for the content of this newsletter.

INTERNAXX

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