Market Outlook January 25th - 29th Print

 

Market Outlook

- US : US indices consolidated last week on concern about China's interest rate policy and changes in US banking regulation. Shares in the Semiconductors (-7.66%), Auto (-7.74%) and Diversified Financials (-9.17%) sectors fell most with no sector trading on the upside. Technically, the upside momentum has weakened significantly last week and the 1080 threshold must hold on the S&P 500 to avoid further consolidation and a change in the medium term trend.

- EUROPE : European markets consolidated inline with Wall Street. Shares in the Basic Resources (-5.46%), Automobiles & Parts (-5.65%), Banks (-6.24%) sectors fell most. Defensive stocks in the Food & Beverage (+1.01%) and Health Care (+0.94%) sectors managed to post modest gains. From a technical point of view on the Stoxx 600, the positive bias may reverse in case of a penetration of the 245 area.

  January 25th - January 29th

Market Round up

 

Weekly chg (%)

Last

Dow Jones

-5

10173

Nasdaq 100

-4.9

1794.8

Dax Xetra

-3.1

5695.3

Cac 40

-3.4

3820.8

Foreign Exchange

Euro/dollar : The pair has broken below its bearish flag lower boundary and should face a further weakness as the RSI is badly directed. SHORT below 1.4850 towards 1.40 & 1.3750.

Dollar/yen : The pair is pulling back on its former channel upper boundary (new support) ahead of a rebound. LONG @ 88 with 93.80 or even 97.50 in sight.

Company preview

Siemens (EUR 64.78 ; -2.48% ; SIE ; SIEGn.DE)
On Tuesday, Siemens is expected to release 1Q net income of appx. E850m compared to around E1.2bln a year earlier on revenue of about E18bln vs E19.6bln a year ago. Last week, the Co signed a long-term cooperation deal worth appx. E450m with Nanjing SR Puzhen Rail Transport to supply components for Chinese intercity trains. Technically, the stock is moving within a large trading range between E68.5 and E60 and may test the lower boundary in the forthcoming days.

Yahoo (USD 15.88 ; -7.24% ; YHOO ; YHOO.O)
The same day in the US, Yahoo! may announce 4Q EPS of appx. $0.16 vs $0.17 a year ago on sales of $1.2bln vs $1.8bln. Microsoft is seeking EU regulators' approval for its planned purchase of the Co's Web-search business. In other news, Yahoo has sold its Zimbra e-mail and online collaboration unit to VMware Inc for an undisclosed price. From a technical view, the price has been shaping a "double top" pattern in the short term and is expected to accelerate on the downside towards $15.

Boeing (USD 57.77 ; -6.16% ; BA ; BA.N)
On Wednesday, Boeing could unveil 4Q EPS of $1.36 compared with $1.67 a year earlier. The Co said this month it would consider upgrading fuel-efficient engines on its 737 planes. A few days ago, the Co teamed up with its partners to launch a bio-energy project based in the United Arab Emirates. From a chartist point of view, the shares remain bullish above a MT rising trend line. As long as the $55 support holds on the downside, a further up move may occur to $62.31 (52w high) then $65.

Nokia (EUR 9.22 ; -1.44% ; NOK1V ; NOK1V.HE)
Thursday, Nokia is expected to post FY net income of E2.2bln vs around E4bln a year ago on revenue of E40bln vs E50.7bln. A week ago, the Co said it would offer free navigation services globally for its smart phones users. Besides, the Co expected to make a "recovery" in smart phones this year. From a technical view, the stock is currently testing a key resistance around 9.45. Only a breakout of this level should open the way to further rally to E10 and E10.6 in extension.

Ford Motor (USD 10.52 ; -10.54% ; F ; F.N)
The same day, Ford Motor could report 4Q EPS of $0.26 compared with a loss of $1.37 per share last year. Recently, the Co planned to build a derivative of its iconic Transit van in the UK. Nearly two weeks ago, the Co raised $500m through selling notes. Technically, the stock consolidated last week and below $12.14 (52w high) may extend its decline to $9.7 - $9.5 before a bounce may be considered.

Selection of those events which may affect the stock prices of international Large Caps


Corporate Calendar January 25th - January 29th

Date

Market

Company

Event

Monday, January 25th

 

IT

Fiat

annual results

 

NE

Philips Electronics

annual results

 

US

Texas Instruments

4th-Quarter results

 

US

Apple

1st-Quarter results

 

US

Halliburton

4th-Quarter results

 

US

AK Steel Holding Corp

4th-Quarter results

Tuesday, January 26th

 

GE

Siemens

1st-Quarter results

 

US

Baker Hughes

4th-Quarter results

 

US

Du Pont De Nemours

4th-Quarter results

 

US

Yahoo

4th-Quarter results

 

US

Johnson & Johnson

4th-Quarter results

 

US

Verizon Communications

4th-Quarter results

Wednesday, January 27th

 

GE

SAP

annual results

 

US

United Technologies

4th-Quarter results

 

US

ConocoPhillips

4th-Quarter results

 

US

Boeing

4th-Quarter results

 

US

Caterpillar

4th-Quarter results

 

US

Abbott Laboratories

4th-Quarter results

Thursday, January 28th

 

FI

Nokia

annual results

 

SW

Hennes & Mauritz (B)

annual results

 

US

Amazon.com

4th-Quarter results

 

US

Colgate Palmolive

4th-Quarter results

 

US

Ford Motor

4th-Quarter results

 

US

Procter & Gamble

2nd-Quarter results

Friday, January 29th

 

GE

Infineon Technologies

1st-Quarter results

 

US

Fortune Brands

4th-Quarter results

 

US

Honeywell

4th-Quarter results

 

US

Chevron

4th-Quarter results

 

US

Dover Corp

4th-Quarter results

 

US

Mattel

4th-Quarter results


Economic Calendar (CET) January 25th - January 29th

Date

Market

Economic data

Period

Expected

Last

Monday, January 25th

16:00:00

US

Existing Home Sales (Mln)

DEC

6.06

6.5

Tuesday, January 26th

16:00:00

US

Consumer Confidence

JAN

53.67

52.9

Wednesday, January 27th

16:00:00

US

New Home Sales (Thsd)

DEC

370.14

355

16:30:00

US

Crude Oil Inventories (WoW chg)

W3

NA

-471

20:15:00

US

Fed: Rates decision

 

0.25%

0.25%

Thursday, January 28th

14:30:00

US

Durable Goods Orders

DEC

2%

0.2%

14:30:00

US

Durable Goods Ex Transportation

DEC

0.4%

2.2%

14:30:00

US

Initial Jobless Claims (Thsd)

W3

450.1

48

Friday, January 29th

14:30:00

US

GDP (QoQ)

4Q

4.8%

2.2%

14:30:00

US

GDP Price (QoQ)

4Q

1.2%

0.4%

14:30:00

US

Personal Consumption

4Q

1.8%

2.8%

15:45:00

US

Chicago Purchasing Manager Index

JAN

57.3

58.7

15:55:00

US

U. of Michigan Confidence

JAN

72.5

72.8

 
 

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