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Market Outlook January 24th - January 28th PDF Print E-mail

Market Outlook

- WALL STREET:
US indices were mixed last week amid a bunch of earnings releases with Apple announcing its 1Q EPS at $6.43 ($5.4 expected) vs $3.67 a year earlier on revenue of $26.74bln ($24.4bln expected) vs $15.68bln in the previous year. On the economic data front, housing starts fell 4.3% to a 529k annual rate (550K expected) in December whereas sales of existing US homes jumped 12.3% (+4.1% expected) in December to a 5.28m annual rate. Also, initial jobless claims fell 37,000 to 404,000 (420K expected) in the week ended January 15th. Regarding sectors, media gained more than 2% and real estate added nearly 1.60%, whereas, automobile and materials lost over 3%. Technically, the S&P 500 is still above its ascending 20D MA and is expected to challenge 1304 after a ST consolidation.

- EUROPE:
In the UK, the FTSE 100 fell below its 20D MA during the last trading week with an appx. 1.8% loss. On the economic data front, UK core CPI rose 2.9% YoY (+2.7% expected) vs +2.7% in November. Jobless Claims also unexpectedly drop 4.1k (flat expected) vs -3.2k in November. In other European news, Germany December PPI rose 0.7% MoM (+0.5% expected) vs +0.2% in November. Moody's will keep close watch on Portugal's exports performance as part of a review of the country's government-bond ratings. In the rest of Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 was broadly flat, whereas the Ibex gained more than 4% and FTSE MIB increased nearly 3%. Utilities, telecommunications and banks sectors gained the most, whereas, basic resources and automobile ended into negative territory, declining over 4%. Technically, the Stoxx 600 remains above its long-term rising trend line, which should maintain the bullish bias with a first target at 290.

 

  January 24th - January 28th

Market Round up

 

Weekly chg (%)

Last

Dow Jones

1.2

11871.8

Nasdaq 100

-1.6

2268.3

Dax Xetra

-.2

7062.4

Cac 40

.9

4017.5

Foreign Exchange

Euro/dollar : the pair is escaping from a bearish channel while key moving averages are reversing up. LONG above 1.3065 towards 1.38 & 1.4250.

Dollar/yen : the pair has broken above its channel resistance thus turning the outlook bullish. LONG @ 80.70 with 84.5 or even 86 in sight.

 

 

Company preview

Siemens (EUR 92.35 ; 1.41% ; SIE ; SIEGn.DE)
On Tuesday, Siemens is expected to release 1Q net income of E1.53bln compared to E1.48bln a year earlier on revenues of around E18.9bln vs E17.3bln. Earlier, the Co said it's confident of achieving its full-year targets while 1Q 2011 net profit from continuing operations is expected to be significantly higher than in 4Q of the previous year. Recently, the Co planned to add over 2,000 jobs at its renewable-energy unit this year. Technically, the stock remains on the upside, above a MT rising trend line. A re-test of E95 is expected in sight before a further bounce towards E100.

Ericsson (B) (SEK 77.85 ; 1.1% ; ERICB ; ERICb.ST)
The same day, Ericsson could report FY net income of around SK17.2bln compared with SK3.7bln a year ago on revenues of SK200.8bln vs SK206.5bln. Last week, the Co's venture, Sony Ericsson announced 4Q sales of E1.53bln (vs EU1.8bln expected by analysts) with net income of E8m vs a loss of E167m last year. Earlier, the Co received a 3yr contract to upgrade and expand the network used by DNA in Finland to support higher 3G and 4G speeds. Graphically, the price bounced off from its major support around SK75 last week and should test its nearest resistance at SK80 before any further upsides.

Boeing (USD 71.68 ; 2.65% ; BA ; BA.N)
Wednesday, Boeing may deliver 4Q EPS of $1.1 compared with $1.79 for the same period last year on sales of $17bln vs $17.9bln. A week ago, the Co teamed up with Science Applications International to submit a revised proposal for the technology development phase of the US Army's Ground Combat Vehicle program. Recently, Boeing planned to cut 1,100 jobs through end of 2012 and expected delivering 13 C-17s in 2011 vs 14 in 2010. Technically, the stock price is close to its key resistance around $72.50. A ST consolidation cannot be ruled out before a new up leg to $75 and $78.3 in extension.

border=0 AstraZeneca (GBp 2963.5 ; -0.89% ; AZN ; AZN.L)
On Thursday, in the UK, AstraZeneca is expected to post FY pre-tax profit of $11.9bln compared to $7.5bln a year ago on revenues of appx. $33bln vs $32.8bln. Earlier this month, the US FDA extended a review of the Co's vandetanib, an experimental treatment for a rare thyroid cancer, by three months. Recently, the Co was upgraded to "buy" from "hold" at Citigroup. From a technical point of view, the stock is still capped by a declining 50D MA. The risk now is a slide below 2925p, which should open the downside way towards 2800p.

border=0 Microsoft (USD 28.02 ; -0.6% ; MSFT ; MSFT.O)
The same day, Microsoft, the US IT giant, reports its 2Q results. EPS is expected to be $0.68 vs $0.74 last year on sales of $19.1bln, almost in line YoY. Earlier, the Co has entered into an agreement with Logica to offer cloud based solutions to clients, utilising public and private cloud offerings with Microsofts Windows Azure platform, Hyper-V Cloud and Microsoft Office 365. From a chartist view, the stock broke below its 20D MA's support last Friday and is now expected to return to $27.5 at first before any further rises.

Selection of those events which may affect the stock prices of international Large Caps

Corporate Calendar January 24th - January 28th

Date

Market

Company

Event

Monday, January 24th

 

IT

STMicroelectronics

annual results

 

NE

Philips Electronics

annual results

 

US

McDonald's

4th-Quarter results

 

US

Texas Instruments

4th-Quarter results

 

US

Halliburton

4th-Quarter results

 

US

American Express

4th-Quarter results

Tuesday, January 25th

 

GE

Siemens

1st-Quarter results

 

SW

Ericsson (B)

annual results

 

US

Yahoo

4th-Quarter results

 

US

Johnson & Johnson

4th-Quarter results

 

US

US Steel

4th-Quarter results

 

US

Du Pont De Nemours

4th-Quarter results

Wednesday, January 26th

 

GE

SAP

annual results

 

NE

KPN

annual results

 

US

Boeing

4th-Quarter results

 

US

ConocoPhillips

4th-Quarter results

 

US

Starbucks

1st-Quarter results

 

US

Xerox

4th-Quarter results

Thursday, January 27th

 

FI

Nokia

annual results

 

IT

Fiat

annual results

 

UK

AstraZeneca

annual results

 

US

Motorola Solutions

4th-Quarter results

 

US

Microsoft

2nd-Quarter results

 

US

Amazon.com

4th-Quarter results

Friday, January 28th

 

US

Dominion Resources

4th-Quarter results

 

US

Ford Motor

4th-Quarter results

 

US

Honeywell

4th-Quarter results

 

US

Chevron

4th-Quarter results

 

US

T Rowe Price Group

4th-Quarter results

 

US

American Electric Power

4th-Quarter results


Economic Calendar (CET) January 24th - January 28th

Date

Market

Economic data

Period

Expected

Last

border=0 Monday, January 24th

   

No major economic event expected

     

border=0 Tuesday, January 25th

08:45:00

FR

Consumer Spending (MoM)

DEC

0.2%

2.8%

10:30:00

UK

Public Sector Net Borrowing (Bln)

DEC

18.55625

22.8

10:30:00

UK

Public Finances (PSNCR) (Bln)

DEC

NA

16.811001

10:30:00

UK

GDP (QoQ)

3Q

0.5%

0.7%

16:00:00

US

Consumer Confidence

JAN

53.92

52.5

border=0 Wednesday, January 26th

16:00:00

US

New Home Sales (Thsd)

DEC

298.27

290

16:30:00

US

Crude Oil Inventories (WoW chg)

W3

NA

2617

20:15:00

US

Fed: Rates decision

 

0.25%

0.25%

border=0 Thursday, January 27th

 

GE

Consumer Price Index (MoM)

SEP

-0.4%

1%

08:45:00

FR

Consumer Confidence

AUG

-36

-36

11:00:00

EC

Business Climate Indicator

JAN

NA

1.31

14:30:00

US

Initial Jobless Claims (Thsd)

W3

411

404

14:30:00

US

Durable Goods Orders

DEC

1.1%

-0.3%

14:30:00

US

Durable Goods Ex Transportation

DEC

1.3%

3.6%

border=0 Friday, January 28th

10:00:00

EC

Euro-zone: M3 (3 mth ave.)

DEC

NA

1.3%

14:30:00

US

GDP (QoQ)

3Q

3.7%

2.6%

14:30:00

US

GDP Price (QoQ)

3Q

1.6%

2.1%

14:30:00

US

Personal Consumption

3Q

4%

2.4%

15:55:00

US

U. of Michigan Confidence

JAN

73.5

72.7

INTERNAXX

This document does not constitute financial advice. If you require such advice, you should seek appropriate professional advice.
 

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