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Market Outlook February 1st - February 5th PDF Print E-mail

 

Market Outlook

- US : US indices extended their consolidation last weak hurt by losses in the Semiconductors (-3.32%), Materials (-4.35%) and Tech. Hardware (-4.38%) sectors. Shares in the Banks (+2.37%), House. & Personal Prod. (+0.77%) and Retailing (+0.47%) sectors managed to post modest gains. Technically, the break of the 1080 support on the S&P 500, if confirmed this week, opens the way to further decline in the weeks ahead.

- EUROPE : European markets consolidated inline with Wall Street. Shares in the Financial Services (-2.66%), Automobiles & Parts (-2.91%) and Basic Resources (-4.58%) fell most. Technology (+2.59%), Personal & Household Goods (+1.84%) and Retail (+1.48%) gained helped by a weak euro and better than expected results from Nokia. From a technical point of view on the Stoxx 600, the index is holding below its 50d moving average and may extend its consolidation to 240 and even 236.

February 1st - February 5th

Market Round up

 

Weekly chg (%)

Last

Dow Jones

-1

10067.3

Nasdaq 100

-3

1741

Dax Xetra

-1.5

5608.8

Cac 40

-2.1

3739.5

Foreign Exchange

Euro/dollar : The pair has broken below its bearish flag lower boundary and should face a further weakness as the RSI is badly directed. SHORT below 1.4600 towards 1.375 & 1.34.

Dollar/yen : The pair is pulling back on its former channel upper boundary (new support) ahead of a rebound. LONG @ 88 with 93.80 or even 97.50 in sight.

Company preview

News Corp (USD 12.61 ; 1.61% ; NWSA ; NWSA.O)
On Tuesday, News Corp, the media conglomerate, is expected to deliver 4Q EPS of appx. $0.2 compared to $0.12 a year earlier on sales of $8.31bln vs $7.87bln. Recently, Fitch Ratings upgraded the Co's rating to "BBB+" from "BBB" previously. In addition, the Co's price target was raised to $15 vs $14 at Barclays. Technically, the price remains well supported by the 100D MA since last September. As long as $12.25 holds, a further up move can be considered to $14 and $14.39 (52w high).

Cisco Systems (USD 22.47 ; -2.18% ; CSCO ; CSCO.O)
Wednesday in the US, Cisco Systems may release 2Q EPS of $0.35 compared with $0.29 a year ago on sales of $9.4bln vs appx. $9.1bln. Last week, the Co said it was seeking an opportunity to invest in new activities across the Gulf region. Earlier, Charles Carmel, vice president said the Co may consider some acquisitions in 2010. From a technical view, the stock broke below a MT rising trend line and might be well forming a "bearish flag" pattern now. Further decline is therefore expected towards $21 in the forthcoming days.

border=0 Unilever (EUR 22.205 ; -0.25% ; UNA ; UNc.AS)
On Thursday, Unilever is expected to unveil FY net income of E3.3bln compared to appx. E5bln a year ago on revenue of about E40.2bln, almost in line with last year's level. A week ago, the Co signed a definitive agreement with Hormel Foods Corp to sell its Shedd's Country Crock branded chilled side-dish business in the US. Besides, the Co's price target was raised to E21.7 from E19.8 at UBS ("neutral" rating unchanged). From a chartist point of view, the shares are still on the upside, backed by its ascending medium-term moving average. Above E21.5, further advance will probably occur to E23 (52w high) at first.

Royal Dutch Shell (EUR 20.195 ; -2.3% ; RDSA ; RDSA.L)
The same day, Royal Dutch Shell could report FY net income of $13.5bln compared with $26.3bln a year earlier. Earlier, the Co agreed to sell three Nigerian production licenses to a local consortium. Recently, CEO Peter Voser said he expected a "very difficult" year for the refining industry worldwide and margins would be under pressure because of sluggish demand and oversupply. Technically, the price escaped on the downside from a rising support and may continue to decline to E19.75 then E19 in the coming weeks.

British Airways (GBp 206.2 ; -0.82% ; BAY ; BAY.L)
On Friday, British Airways may deliver a 3Q pre-tax loss, wider than last year's loss on revenues of around £2bln vs £2.3bln a year ago. Recently, the Co's Chairman saw a "bigger loss" in the current fiscal year ending March 31 2010 compared to a year ago. From a technical point of view, the stock consolidates above its key horizontal level at 200p, which refers to both the current 20D MA and a rising support. Above this level, we expect a ST pause before further upsides to 220p and 227p in extension.

Selection of those events which may affect the stock prices of international Large Caps


Corporate Calendar February 1st - February 5th

Date

Market

Company

Event

Monday, February 1st

 

IR

Ryanair

3rd-Quarter results

 

US

Humana

1st-Quarter results

 

US

Sysco

4th-Quarter results

 

US

Gannett

2nd-Quarter results

 

US

Plum Creek Timber

4th-Quarter results

 

US

Exxon Mobil

1st-Quarter results

Tuesday, February 2nd

 

US

Dow Chemical

4th-Quarter results

 

US

The Hershey Company

4th-Quarter results

 

US

United Parcel Service (B)

4th-Quarter results

 

US

Whirlpool

4th-Quarter results

 

US

Metlife

4th-Quarter results

 

US

News Corp

4th-Quarter results

Wednesday, February 3rd

 

 

US

Pfizer

3rd-Quarter results

 

US

Time Warner

4th-Quarter results

 

US

Comcast

4th-Quarter results

 

US

Cisco Systems

2th-Quarter results

 

US

Monster Worldwide

4th-Quarter results

 

US

Kraft Foods

4th-Quarter results

Thursday, February 4th

 

FR

LVMH

annual results

 

UK

Glaxosmithkline

annual results

 

UK

Unilever

annual results

 

NE

Unilever

annual results

 

NE

Royal Dutch Shell

annual results

 

US

Mastercard Inc

3rd-Quarter results

Friday, February 5th

 

UK

British Airways

3rd-Quarter results

 

UK

BG Group

annual results

 

SW

Volvo (B)

annual results

 

US

Weyerhaeuser

3rd-Quarter results

 

SZ

Syngenta

annual results

 

US

Tyson Foods

1st-Quarter results


Economic Calendar (CET) February 1st - February 5th

Date

Market

Economic data

Period

Expected

Last

Monday, February 1st

14:30:00

US

Personal Income

DEC

0.3%

0.4%

14:30:00

US

Personal Spending

DEC

0.3%

0.5%

16:00:00

US

Construction Spending (MoM)

DEC

-0.5%

-0.6%

16:00:00

US

ISM - Manufacturing

JAN

55.8

54.9

16:00:00

US

ISM - Price Paid

JAN

62.9

61.5

Tuesday, February 2nd

23:00:00

US

Total Vehicule Sales (Mln)

JAN

11.22

11.23

23:00:00

US

Domestic Vehicule Sales (Mln)

JAN

8.59

8.

 Wednesday, February 3rd

16:00:00

US

ISM - Non Manufacturing

JAN

51

49.8

16:30:00

US

Crude Oil Inventories (WoW chg)

W4

NA

-3888

Thursday, February 4th

14:30:00

US

Initial Jobless Claims (Thsd)

W4

NA

470

14:30:00

US

Nonfarm Productivity

4Q

5.6%

8.1%

14:30:00

US

Unit Labor Costs

4Q

-2%

-2.5%

16:00:00

US

Factory Orders

DEC

1%

1.1%

Friday, February 5th

14:30:00

US

Unemployment Rate

JAN

10%

10%

14:30:00

US

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)

JAN

0.2%

0.2%

14:30:00

US

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Thsd)

JAN

12.77

-85

14:30:00

US

Change in Manufact. Payrolls (Thsd)

JAN

-25

-27

14:30:00

US

Average Weekly Hours

JAN

33.2

33.2

21:00:00

US

Consumer Credit (Bln)

DEC

-7.391

-17.494


 

This document does not constitute financial advice. If you require such advice, you should seek appropriate professional advice. Internaxx accepts no responsibility for the content of this newsletter. Investors are not authorized to copy, reproduce, duplicate, sell, resell or exploit any portion of the Newsletter for their own commercial purposes. In that case, Internaxx will immediately end the subscription.

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