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Market Outlook April 26 - April 30th PDF Print E-mail

Market Outlook

- US : US indices reached new 52w highs last week with the Dow gaining 1.7% and the S&P 500 2.1%. The market has erased the ground lost following the SEC's accusation of fraud on Goldman Sachs. Investors have welcomed instead better than expected economic and company reports. Shares in the Real Estate (+7.55%), Auto (+5.76%) and Cons. Durables (+5.22%) sectors gained most. From a technical point of view, as long as 1183.7 (last week's lowest level) holds the S&P 500 can continue to trade up to 1220 and 1240.

- EUROPE : European indices were mixed last week. The Dax (Germany), AEX (Netherlands) and OMX30 (Sweden) reported a week on week gain of more than one percent whereas other main European markets fell on the week with the weakest being the Ibex (Spain) with a drop of 3%. Shares the Auto (+5.01%), Personal & Household Goods (+2.93%) and Travel & Leisure (+2.84%) gained ground whereas stocks in the Utilities (-1.55%), Banks (-2.55%) and Insurance (-3.1%) were under pressure. On the STOXX 600, as long as 263 holds the index can continue its up move to 272.6 and 280.

April 26th - April 30th

Market Round up

 

Weekly chg (%)

Last

Dow Jones

1.7

11204.3

Nasdaq 100

2.1

2055.3

Dax Xetra

1.3

6259.5

Cac 40

-.9

3951.3

Foreign Exchange

Euro/dollar : The pair has struck against its resistance and remains under pressure as the RSI is turning down. SHORT below 1.38 towards 1.30 & 1.25.

Dollar/yen : The pair has broken above its bullish flag upper boundary and is approaching its next resistance. LONG @ 90.30 with 95.60 or even 97.50 in sight.

Company preview

Ford Motor (USD 14.21 ; 5.89% ; F ; F.N)
On Tuesday, Ford Motor is expected to deliver 1Q EPS of $0.31 vs a LPS of $0.75 a year ago on sales of $28bln vs appx. $24.8bln. Last week UBS reaffirmed its "buy" rating on the stock with a price target of $15. Technically, the stock is currently testing a key resistance at $14.30. An upside breakout of this level is expected with targets at $15 and $15.6.

Siemens (EUR 72.83 ; 2.39% ; SIE ; SIEGn.DE)
On Thursday, Siemens may
border=0 announce 2Q net income of appx. E1bln vs E962m the previous year on revenue of E17.5bln vs nearly $19bln. On April 21, Credit Suisse reaffirmed its "outperform" rating on the stock with a price target at E80. From a technical view, the stock is consolidating above a MT support at E68.5. As long as the key level holds on the downside, a further up move is more likely towards E76.39 (the previous peak).

Unilever (EUR 23.03 ; 2.13% ; UNA ; UNc.AS)
The same day, Unilever could post 1Q net income of E940m compared with E731m last year on revenues of E9.7bln vs E9.5bln. The stock was affirmed at "overweight" with a price target of E26 at JPMorgan last week. Technically, the shares are about to break out their nearest resistance around E23.2. A further bounce should be in sight to E24 at first.

Total (EUR 42.61 ; -0.87% ; FP ; TOTF.PA)
On Friday, Total is expected to unveil 1Q net income of E2.4bln compared to E2.3bln a year earlier. Recently, CEO Christophe de Margerie forecast "moderate" growth rate in oil demand in the coming years. The Co's price target was raised to E48 ("buy") from E44 ("hold") at Citigroup. Graphically, the stock is consolidating but still remains supported by a MT ascending trend line. We expect a ST pause before a new leg up to E44.65 and E46.6 in extension.

Metro (EUR 47.33 ; 5.29% ; MEO ; MEOG.DE)
On the same day, Metro, Germany's largest retailer, may release a 1Q low double digit net loss compared to a loss of E100m a year ago. Last week, the Co was upgraded to "buy" from "neutral" at Goldman Sachs. Technically, the stock price remains well positively oriented, being backed by a rising 20D MA. Above E44.50, look for further advance to E50 and E52.5.

Selection of those events which may affect the stock prices of international Large Caps

Corporate Calendar April 26th - April 30th

Date

Market

Company

Event

Monday, April 26th

 

US

Texas Instruments

2nd-Quarter results

 

US

Boston Scientific

1st-Quarter results

 

US

Humana

4th-Quarter results

 

US

Whirlpool

2nd-Quarter results

 

US

Caterpillar

1st-Quarter results

 

US

Lorillard

1st-Quarter results

Tuesday, April 27th

 

GE

Daimler

1st-Quarter results

 

UK

BP

1st-Quarter results

 

US

Du Pont De Nemours

1st-Quarter results

 

US

Ford Motor

1st-Quarter results

 

US

3M

2nd-Quarter results

 

US

UPS

1st-Quarter results

Wednesday, April 28th

 

GE

SAP

1st-Quarter results

 

UK

Glaxosmithkline

1st-Quarter results

 

SP

BBVA

1st-Quarter results

 

SW

Scania B

1st-Quarter results

 

US

Sprint Nextel

4th-Quarter results

 

US

Xilinx

2nd-Quarter results

Thursday, April 29th

 

GE

MAN SE

1st-Quarter results

 

GE

BASF

1st-Quarter results

 

GE

Siemens

2nd-Quarter results

 

UK

Unilever

1st-Quarter results

 

UK

AstraZeneca

1st-Quarter results

 

US

Viacom B

3rd-Quarter results

Friday, April 30th

 

FR

Total

1st-Quarter results

 

GE

Metro

1st-Quarter results

 

UK

Barclays

1st-Quarter results

 

UK

WPP Group

1st-Quarter results

 

US

Chevron

1st-Quarter results

 

US

Nasdaq OMX Group

1st-Quarter results

Economic Calendar (CET) April 26th - April 30th

Date

Market

Economic data

Period

Expected

Last

Monday, April 26th

   

No major economic data expected

     

Tuesday, April 27th

16:00:00

US

Consumer Confidence

APR

53.8

52.5

border=0 Wednesday, April 28th

16:30:00

US

Crude Oil Inventories (WoW chg)

W16

NA

1894

20:15:00

US

Fed: Rates decision

 

0.25%

0.25%

Thursday, April 29th

14:30:00

US

Initial Jobless Claims (Thsd)

W16

441.3

456

Friday, April 30th

14:30:00

US

GDP (QoQ)

4Q

3.4%

5.6%

14:30:00

US

GDP Price (QoQ)

4Q

0.9%

0.5%

14:30:00

US

Personal Consumption

4Q

3.1%

1.6%

15:45:00

US

Chicago Purchasing Manager Index

APR

59.9

58.8

15:55:00

US

U. of Michigan Confidence

APR

71.4

69.5

 

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