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Market Outlook - 7th - 11th November PDF Print E-mail

Market Outlook

- WALL STREET:
US indices have consolidated last week. On the economic front, the ISM manufacturing was below expectations at 50.8 vs 52 expected. Same trend for the ISM non-manufacturing at 52.9 versus 53.5 expected. The initial jobless claims were almost in line at 397K versus 400K. Finally, Nonfarm Payrolls were lower than expected at 80K. Looking at corporate news, CVS Caremark (CVS) published 3Q adjusted EPS from continuing operations of $0.70 vs $0.64 a year ago. Net revenues increased 12.5% to a record $26.7B.Comcast (CMCSA) announced 3Q EPS of $0.33 vs $0.31 a year ago. Revenue increased 51.1% YoY to $14.34B. Operating income increased 35.1% to $2.64B. As far as sectors are concerned, Utilities and Industry are still very bullish despite the last week consolidation. From a technical perspective, the S&P 500, thanks to a pullback following the confirmation of a reversal pattern in double-bottom, could reach 1288 & 1330.

- EUROPE:
The FTSE 100 is still developing a short term bullish trend. From a technical point of view, the index has confirmed a reversal pattern in double-bottom and is now targeting the psychological threshold close to 6000. Furthermore, a bullish cross is identified between the 20-day simple moving average and the 50-simple moving average. Looking at economic statistics, the YoY & QoQ GDP was a little bit better than expected @ both 0.5 versus respectively 0.4 & 0.3% expected. In Europe, Dax 30 & Cac 40 underperformed the FTSE 100. As far as sectors are concerned, retail and telecommunications sectors outperformed European indices.

 

  November 7th - November 11th

 

border=0 Market Round up

 

Weekly chg (%)

Last

Dow Jones

-2

11983.2

Nasdaq 100

-1.9

2356.3

Dax Xetra

-6

5966.2

Cac 40

-6.7

3123.6

border=0 Foreign Exchange

Euro/dollar : the pair has struck against its new resistance and remains under pressure. SHORT position below 1.42 with 1.35 & 1.315 in sight.

Dollar/yen : the pair has struck against its bearish channel upper boundary and remains on the downside. SHORT position below 79.5 with 75.5 & 73.75 in sight.

Company preview

border=0 Vodafone (GBp 172.95 ; -0.77% ; VOD ; VOD.L)
On Tuesday, Vodafone, the UK mobile telecommunications company, may release 1H pre-tax profit of £5.04B compared with £8.2B a year ago on sales of £23.4B vs £22.6B. Earlier, Turkish regulator has approved the acquisition of Koc Holding by the Co. From a chartist point of view, Vodafone is still bullish thanks to the confirmation of a reversal pattern in diamond. The next up target is 184p as long as prices are above 163p.

border=0 HSBC (GBp 540 ; -4.48% ; HSBA ; 0005.HK)
On Wednesday, HSBC is expected to deliver 3Q pre-tax profit of $5.7B compared to $3.5B last year. Recently, the bank planned to expand its commercial lending and wealth management businesses in Canada. Earlier, the Co to reduce costs by shutting down two of its branches in Jordan. From a technical view, the stock price might be well forming a ST bottom pattern. As long as 515p is not broken, look for further advance towards 600p.

border=0 Walt Disney (USD 34.76 ; -4% ; DIS ; DIS.N)
On Thursday, Walt Disney could unveil 4Q EPS of $0.55 compared to $0.45 a year earlier on sales of around $10.4B vs $9.7B. Early this month, the Co announced a plan to open its first store in China in 2012. Earlier, the Co agreed to purchase a 49% stake in a Russian network, Seven TV to expand its channel. From a technical view, the share holds above its major support at $33, and should post a ST consolidation before further upsides to $36.6 and then to $37.5.

border=0 Siemens (EUR 74.05 ; -5.29% ; SIE ; SIEGn.DE)
The same day, Siemens, an engineering and manufacturing company, may release FY net income of E6.7B compared with E3.9B a year ago on sales of E73.2B vs E76B. Last week, the Co signed a contract to buy MobileMD, a health information exchange developer. Earlier, the Co raised its stake in UK's Marine Current Turbines Ltd. to 45%. From a technical point of view, the configuration is mixed confined between a bearish gap on November 1st and the support threshold @ E71.

border=0 Richemont (CHF 47.77 ; -4.94% ; CFR ; CFR.VX)
On Friday, Richemont is expected to post 1H net income of E653M compared with E644M a year ago on revenues of E4.1B vs around E3.3B. From a technical point of view, the shares remain under pressure below E50, and seem likely to continue to consolidate in the coming days. Nevertheless, the level at E45.5 now plays as a key support role and should be tested, if breakout, look for a new pullback towards 43.

Selection of those events which may affect the stock prices of international Large Caps


Corporate Calendar November 7th - November 11th

Date

Market

Company

Event

border=0 Monday, November 7th

 

GE

Axel Springer

3rd-Quarter results

 

IR

Ryanair

1st-Half results

 

UK

Rentokil Initial

3rd-Quarter results

 

US

CareFusion

1st-Quarter results

 

US

Priceline.com

3rd-Quarter results

 

US

Sysco

1st-Quarter results

border=0 Tuesday, November 8th

 

FR

Capgemini

3rd-Quarter results

 

FR

Société Générale

3rd-Quarter results

 

GE

MunichRe

3rd-Quarter results

 

IT

Intesa Sanpaolo

3rd-Quarter results

 

SZ

Adecco

3rd-Quarter results

 

UK

Vodafone

1st-Half results

border=0 Wednesday, November 9th

 

BE

AB InBev

3rd-Quarter results

 

FR

Vallourec

3rd-Quarter results

 

GE

E.ON

3rd-Quarter results

 

IT

Enel

3rd-Quarter results

 

UK

HSBC

3rd-Quarter results

 

US

Polo Ralph Lauren

2nd-Quarter results

border=0 Thursday, November 10th

 

FR

EADS

3rd-Quarter results

 

GE

Deutsche Telekom

3rd-Quarter results

 

GE

RWE

3rd-Quarter results

 

GE

Siemens

annual results

 

US

Macy's Inc

3rd-Quarter results

 

US

Walt Disney

4th-Quarter results

border=0 Friday, November 11th

 

FR

Crédit Agricole

3rd-Quarter results

 

GE

Salzgitter

3rd-Quarter results

 

IT

Generali

3rd-Quarter results

 

SZ

Richemont

1st-Half results

 

UK

3I Group

1st-Half results

 

US

JC Penney

3rd-Quarter results


Economic Calendar (CET) November 7th - November 11th

Date

Market

Economic data

Period

Expected

Last

border=0 Monday, November 7th

11:00:00

EC

Euro-Zone: Retail Trade (MoM)

SEP

NA

0.1%

12:00:00

GE

Industrial Production (MoM)

SEP

NA

-1%

21:00:00

US

Consumer Credit (Bln)

SEP

5.225

-9.501

border=0 Tuesday, November 8th

08:00:00

GE

Trade Balance (Bln)

SEP

NA

11.8

08:00:00

GE

Exports (MoM)

SEP

NA

3.5%

08:45:00

FR

Trade Balance (Mln)

SEP

NA

-4967

10:30:00

UK

Industrial Production (MoM)

SEP

NA

0.2%

10:30:00

UK

Manufacturing Production (MoM)

SEP

NA

-0.3%

16:00:00

UK

GDP Estimate (NIESR)

OCT

NA

0.5%

border=0 Wednesday, November 9th

08:45:00

FR

Central Govt. Balance (Bln)

SEP

NA

-102.777

10:30:00

UK

Trade Balance Non EU25 (Mln GBP)

SEP

NA

-4867

10:30:00

UK

Visible Trade Balance (Mln GBP)

SEP

NA

-7768

13:59:00

GE

Wholesale Price Index (MoM)

SEP

NA

0.3%

16:00:00

US

Wholesale Inventories

SEP

0.6%

0.4%

16:30:00

US

Crude Oil Inventories (WoW chg)

W44

NA

1826

border=0 Thursday, November 10th

07:30:00

FR

Consumer Price Index (MoM)

OCT

NA

-0.1%

08:00:00

GE

Consumer Price Index (MoM)

OCT

NA

0%

08:00:00

GE

CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM)

OCT

NA

0%

13:00:00

UK

BoE: Rates decision

 

0.5%

0.5%

14:30:00

US

Trade Balance (Bln)

SEP

-46

-45.6

20:00:00

US

Monthly Budget Satement (Bln)

OCT

NA

-64.6

border=0 Friday, November 11th

10:30:00

UK

PPI - Input (MoM)

OCT

NA

1.7%

10:30:00

UK

PPI - Output (MoM)

OCT

NA

0.3%

15:55:00

US

U. of Michigan Confidence

OCT

60.4

60.9


 


This document does not constitute financial advice. If you require such advice, you should seek appropriate professional advice. Internaxx accepts no responsibility for the content of this newsletter.

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