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Market Outlook - 5th - 9th September PDF Print E-mail

Market Outlook

- WALL STREET:
US indices closed mixed last week. On the economic front, non farm payrolls were unchanged in August and unemployment rate in August stayed at 9.1%. In other news, the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) statement said there was no clear consensus about what the best next easing step would be. "Some participants judged that none of the tools available to the FOMC would likely do much to promote a faster economic recovery". Looking at sectors, diversified financials (-3.49%) posted the weakest performance, followed by commercial and professional services (-2%), banks (-1.95%) and telecom services (-1.49%) while food, utilities, real estate and materials ended in positive territory. From a chartist view, the MT outlook of the S&P500 index remains bearish. Nevertheless, a limited technical rebound cannot be ruled out, as long as 1155 plays as a support role.

- EUROPE:
In the UK, the FTSE 100 gained 3.14% last week. Graphically, the index is expected to trade within a MT range between 5445 and 4800, and may also test the upper boundary at first. Looking at economic data, UK PMI construction was down to 52.6 in August vs 53.5 in July while UK PMI manufacturing for August was 49 vs 49.4 in July. GfK UK consumer confidence survey fell to -31 in August vs -30 in July. In Europe, in euro-zone, CPI stagnated at +2.5% in August, and unemployment rate remained at 10% in July. Also, Euro-zone PPI was up 0.5% in July, as expected, after being stable in June. Other major European indices all extended their rally for another week. All sectors gained ground. Basic resources rose 5.27%, followed by financial services (+4.83%) and construction & materials (+4.72%). Banks, insurance, food, retail, travel, media, and health care also increased by over 3%. From a technical point of view, the Stoxx 600 index remains under pressure below its key resistance at 240, and should post new weakness towards 215.

 

  September 5th - September 9th

border=0 Market Round up

 

Weekly chg (%)

Last

Dow Jones

-.4

5292

Nasdaq 100

.3

2167.8

Dax Xetra

0

5538.3

Cac 40

3.1

5292

border=0 Foreign Exchange

Euro/dollar : the pair has rebounded on its support and is challenging its declining trend line. LONG above 1.395 towards 1.4700 & 1.4900.

Dollar/yen : the pair remains under pressure and is challenging its previous low. SHORT below 79.5 with 75.3 or even 73.75 in sight.

Company preview

border=0 Partners Group (CHF 137.2 ; 4.73% ; PGHN ; PGHN.S)
On Tuesday, Partners Group, a global private markets asset management firm, may deliver 1H net income of around SF120M compared to SF154M a year ago. Recently, the Co continued to expand its global presence on a local basis with the opening of a new office in Paris. Early, the Co invested in a prime retail property in Copenhagen. From a technical view, the stock posted a technical rebound in the past trading sessions, but is now close to its key resistance. Hence, a consolidation or a pullback seems likely to SF130 in the near term.

border=0 Ashtead Group Plc (GBp 114.8 ; 12.66% ; AHT ; AHT.L)
The same day in the UK, Ashtead Group, an investment holding and management company, is expected to post 1Q pre-tax profit of appx. £23M compared with £14M a year earlier. Earlier, the Co announced its finance director, Ian Robson, would retire in July 2012, to be replaced by Suzanne Wood. From a chartist view, the share price remains under pressure below a key level at 125p, which should limit any potential upsides and call for a new decline to 100p at first.

border=0 Morrison Supermarkets (GBp 292 ; 4.29% ; MRW ; MRW.L)
On Thursday, William Morrison Supermarkets, the UK retail giant, is expected to unveil 1H pre-tax profit of £438M compared with £412M a year ago on sales of £8.7B vs £8.1B. Last week, the Co was downgraded to "hold" from "buy" at Citigroup. UK's retail sales, including fuel rose 0.2% MoM in July vs revised +0.8% in June, less than economists forecast of +0.3%. Technically, the stock stands well above its 20D MA's support and is now challenging a MT declining trend line. Above 280p, look for a new bounce to 300p and 310p in extension.

border=0 Premier Farnell (GBp 182.1 ; 4.18% ; PFL ; PFL.L)
The same day, Premier Farnell, an international electronic components and equipment distributor, could post 1H pre-tax profit of around £52M compared with £47.3M a year earlier on revenues of £496M, almost in line with last year. Recently, the Co was added to "least preferred European support services shares" at UBS. Earlier, the Co announced worldwide stocking distribution agreement with SemiSouth Laboratories, Inc. Graphically, the stock remains on the downside below its descending 50D MA, and should post new weakness to 160p after a ST pause.

border=0 National Semiconductor (USD 24.89 ; 0.12% ; NSM ; NSM.N)
On Friday, in the US, National Semiconductor may report 1Q EPS of $0.27 compared to $0.39 a year earlier on sales of $373M vs $412M. The semiconductor company was being bought by Texas Instrument for $25 per share in cash a few months ago, and the Co's stockholders also approved the acquisition deal. From a chartist point of view, the shares are trading within a MT range between $24 and $25, and may test the upper boundary in the forthcoming days.

Selection of those events which may affect the stock prices of international Large Caps


Corporate Calendar September 5th - September 9th

Date

Market

Company

Event

border=0 Monday, September 5th

 

FR

bioMérieux

1st-Half results

border=0 Tuesday, September 6th

 

SZ

Partners Group

1st-Half results

 

UK

Ashtead Group Plc

1st-Quarter results

 

UK

Genus

annual results

 

UK

McBride Plc

annual results

border=0 Wednesday, September 7th

   

No major results expected

 

border=0 Thursday, September 8th

 

SZ

Swiss Prime Site

1st-Half results

 

UK

Morrison Supermarkets

1st-Half results

 

UK

Premier Farnell

1st-Half results

 

UK

Redrow Plc

annual results

border=0 Friday, September 9th

 

UK

JD Wetherspoon

annual results

 

US

Kroger

2nd-Quarter results

 

US

National Semiconductor

1st-Quarter results


Economic Calendar (CET) September 5th - September 9th

Date

Market

Economic data

Period

Expected

Last

border=0 Monday, September 5th

11:00:00

EC

Euro-Zone: Retail Trade (MoM)

JUL

NA

0.7%

border=0 Tuesday, September 6th

11:00:00

EC

Euro-Zone: GDP (QoQ)

2Q

NA

0.2%

16:00:00

US

ISM - Non Manufacturing

AUG

51.5

52.7

border=0 Wednesday, September 7th

10:30:00

UK

Industrial Production (MoM)

JUL

NA

0%

10:30:00

UK

Manufacturing Production (MoM)

JUL

NA

-0.4%

12:00:00

GE

Industrial Production (MoM)

JUL

NA

-1.1%

13:59:00

UK

GDP Estimate (NIESR)

AUG

NA

0.6%

border=0 Thursday, September 8th

07:30:00

FR

Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ)

3Q

NA

0.4%

08:00:00

GE

Trade Balance (Bln)

JUL

NA

12.7

08:00:00

GE

Exports (MoM)

JUL

NA

-1.2%

13:00:00

UK

BoE: Rates decision

 

0.5%

0.5%

13:45:00

EC

ECB: Rates decision

 

1.5%

1.5%

14:30:00

US

Trade Balance (Bln)

JUL

-50.1

-53.1

border=0 Friday, September 9th

08:00:00

GE

Consumer Price Index (MoM)

AUG

NA

-0.1%

08:00:00

GE

CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM)

AUG

NA

-0.1%

08:45:00

FR

Central Govt. Balance (Bln)

JUL

NA

-61.349

10:30:00

UK

PPI - Input (MoM)

AUG

NA

0.6%

10:30:00

UK

PPI - Output (MoM)

AUG

NA

0.2%

16:00:00

US

Wholesale Inventories

JUL

0.9%

0.6%


 


This document does not constitute financial advice. If you require such advice, you should seek appropriate professional advice. Internaxx accepts no responsibility for the content of this newsletter.

INTERNAXX

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