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Market Outlook - 14th - 18th November PDF Print E-mail

Market Outlook

- WALL STREET:
US indices consolidated last week. On the economic front, business & economic optimism indices were in line with expectations. Both wholesale inventories & initial jobless claims were slightly better than expected. Finally, the U. of Michigan confidence index was above expectations (61.5) at 64.2. Looking at corporate news, Kohls reported 3Q diluted EPS up 40% to $0.80. Net income for the quarter increased 20% to $211M, compared to $176M ($0.57 per diluted share) a year ago. General Motors unveiled 3Q net income of $1.73B, or $1.03 a share, above estimates. Priceline.com posted 3Q non-GAAP EPS of $9.95 ($9.30 expected) vs $5.33 a year ago. As far as sectors are concerned, food & staples retail and health care equipment outperformed the S&P 500. From a technical perspective, the American index is pulling back following the confirmation of a bullish reversal pattern in double-bottom. Targets are 1288 & 1330.

- EUROPE:
The FTSE 100, from a technical point of view, is also pulling back following the confirmation of a reversal pattern in double-bottom. The 50-day simple moving average, which has turned up, is below prices and now plays a strong support role. Our targets are still the psychological threshold @ 6000. Looking at economic statistics, the industrial & manufacturing productions were globally in line with YoY & MoM expectations. In Europe, FTSE MIB outperformed while OMX Stockholm 30 underperformed the English index. As far as sectors are concerned, oil & gas and food & beverage sectors outperformed the FTSE 100 index.

 

  November 14th - November 18th

border=0 Market Round up

 

Weekly chg (%)

Last

Dow Jones

1.4

12153.7

Nasdaq 100

0

2355.8

Dax Xetra

1.5

6057

Cac 40

.8

3149.4

border=0 Foreign Exchange

Euro/dollar : the pair has struck against its new resistance and remains under pressure. SHORT position below 1.42 with 1.35 & 1.315 in sight.

Dollar/yen : the pair has struck against its bearish channel upper boundary and remains on the downside. SHORT position below 79.5 with 75.5 & 73.75 in sight.

Company preview

border=0 Dell (USD 15.35 ; -0.07% ; DELL ; DELL.O)
On Tuesday, Dell, the IT giant, is expected to deliver 3Q EPS of $0.47 compared with $0.41 a year ago on sales of $15.6B vs around $15.4B. Earlier, the Co planned to expand its staff size to 700 from 600 currently at Taiwan design center. From a chartist view, the stock bounced off last week from its key support at $14.75, and should post further advance to $16 and then to $16.55 in the coming days.

border=0 Burberry Group (GBp 1379 ; 1.92% ; BRBY ; BRBY.L)
The same day, Burberry Group, the UK luxury brand, may release 1H pre-tax profit of 157.6M compared to 117.7M a year ago on revenues of around 820M vs 673M. Earlier, the Co announced its plan to open a new store in Sao Paolo. Two weeks ago, CEO Agela Ahrendts declared the Co should continue to invest for "continuing global momentum" and Asia continent would offer "Flagship markets". From a chartist point of view, a mid term bullish continuation pattern in consolidation channel is taking shape. A push above 1400 will trigger a measured move up above 1600p.

border=0 Wal-Mart (USD 59.2 ; 2.96% ; WMT ; WMT.N)
The same day in the US, Wal-Mart, the retail giant, is expected to post 3Q EPS of appx. $0.98 compared with $0.9 last year on sales of $108B vs $102B. The US same stores sales increased 3.1% YoY in week ended November 5, and rose 1.4% MoM. Currently, the Co is in process to merge with the South African retailer, Massmart, and the deal is under review by the Supreme Court. From a technical point of view, the stock is currently developing a measured move up since the beginning of October 2011. The next target is set at $63.

border=0 Vivendi (EUR 15.945 ; 1.21% ; VIV ; VIV.PA)
On Wednesday, Vivendi, the French telecommunication firm, could unveil 3Q net income of 558M compared to 372M a year earlier on sales of around 6.8B vs 6.9B. Recently, the Cos Universal Music Group unit could purchase EMI Group's recorded music unit for 1.2B from Citigroup. In addition, the Co ruled out any plans for now to sell Universal Music Group. From a technical view, the weekly configuration is bearish following the 16.5 downward breakout. Furthermore, a bearish continuation pattern in symmetrical triangle is taking shape. The midterm target is 11.5 as long as prices are below the 17.5 mark.

border=0 SABMiller (GBp 2258 ; 1.87% ; SAB ; SAB.L)
On Thursday, Sabmiller may unveil 1H pre-tax profit of appx. $2.3B compared to appx. $1.7B last year. Early this month, the Co appointed Mauricio Leyva as the CEO of its Peruvian unit, replacing Robert Priday. Recently, the Co said lager volumes for the first six months were 3% ahead of the prior year. In addition, the international beer company also announced its intention to form a strategic alliance with Anadolu Efes. Technically, as long as 2100p remains as a support, and the stock is expected to challenge its resistance at 2300p in sight, if breakout, look for 2360p.

Selection of those events which may affect the stock prices of international Large Caps


Corporate Calendar November 14th - November 18th

Date

Market

Company

Event

border=0 Monday, November 14th

 

GE

Hochtief

3rd-Quarter results

 

IT

UniCredit

3rd-Quarter results

 

SP

ACS

3rd-Quarter results

 

UK

Electrocomponents

1st-Half results

 

US

JC Penney

3rd-Quarter results

 

US

Lowe's Cos

3rd-Quarter results

border=0 Tuesday, November 15th

 

FR

Bouygues

3rd-Quarter results

 

UK

Burberry Group

1st-Half results

 

UK

Easyjet

annual results

 

US

Dell

3rd-Quarter results

 

US

Home Depot

3rd-Quarter results

 

US

Wal-Mart

3rd-Quarter results

border=0 Wednesday, November 16th

 

FR

Vivendi

3rd-Quarter results

 

GE

Infineon Technologies

annual results

 

US

Abercrombie & Fitch

3rd-Quarter results

 

US

Applied Materials

4th-Quarter results

 

US

Limited Brands

3rd-Quarter results

 

US

Target

3rd-Quarter results

border=0 Thursday, November 17th

 

NE

Ahold

3rd-Quarter results

 

UK

Glencore

3rd-Quarter results

 

UK

National Grid

1st-Half results

 

UK

SABMiller

1st-Half results

 

US

Gap

3rd-Quarter results

 

US

Sears Holdings

3rd-Quarter results

border=0 Friday, November 18th

 

US

HJ Heinz

2nd-Quarter results

 

US

Salesforce.com

3rd-Quarter results


Economic Calendar (CET) November 14th - November 18th

Date

Market

Economic data

Period

Expected

Last

border=0 Monday, November 14th

08:45:00

FR

Current Account (Mln)

SEP

NA

-2.9

11:00:00

EC

Euro-Zone: Industrial Production (MoM)

SEP

NA

1.5%

border=0 Tuesday, November 15th

07:30:00

FR

GDP (QoQ)

3Q

NA

0%

11:00:00

EC

Euro-Zone: GDP (QoQ)

2Q

NA

0.2%

11:00:00

GE

Zew Survey (Econ. Sentiment)

NOV

NA

-48.3

14:30:00

US

Empire Manufacturing

NOV

-1.6

-8.5

14:30:00

US

Producer Price Index (MoM)

OCT

0.1%

0.8%

14:30:00

US

Retail Sales

OCT

0.5%

1.1%

border=0 Wednesday, November 16th

10:30:00

UK

Unemployment Rate (ILO)

SEP

NA

8.1%

11:00:00

EC

Euro-Zone: CPI (MoM)

OCT

NA

0.8%

14:30:00

US

Consumer Price Index (MoM)

OCT

0.1%

0.3%

15:15:00

US

Industrial Production (MoM)

OCT

0.44%

0.19%

16:00:00

US

NAHB Housing Market

NOV

18

18

16:30:00

US

Crude Oil Inventories (WoW chg)

W45

NA

-1370

border=0 Thursday, November 17th

10:30:00

UK

Retail Sales (MoM)

OCT

NA

0.7%

14:30:00

US

Housing Starts (Thsd)

OCT

610

658

14:30:00

US

Bulding Permits (Thsd)

OCT

599

589

16:00:00

US

Philadelphia Fed.

NOV

9

8.7

border=0 Friday, November 18th

08:00:00

GE

Producer Price Index (MoM)

2Q

NA

0.3%

16:00:00

US

Leading Indicators

OCT

0.5%

0.2%


 


This document does not constitute financial advice. If you require such advice, you should seek appropriate professional advice. Internaxx accepts no responsibility for the content of this newsletter.

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