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Market October 25th - October 29th PDF Print E-mail

Market Outlook

- WALL STREET:
US indices rose last week with banks stocks rocketing by more than 6% on average. On the opposite, technology hardware, materials and consumer durable goods ended in the red. On the economic front, the Fed Beige Book confirmed Fed current focus on inflation and worries about slow economic recovery. Technically, the S&P 500 outlook remains bullish with 1220 in sight.

- EUROPE:
European indices extended their gain last week with the FTSE MIB adding 2.25% whereas the AEX was the only European major equity index ending in the negative territory with a 0.11% decline. Regarding sectors, all of them ended the week in the positive territory except banks, declining 0.56%. Like last week, automobiles & parts was the best performing one with a 3.35% gain. Volkswagen announced Friday that 9mths net income rose to E4bln from E655m a year earlier. The Co said: "We therefore continue to anticipate that our deliveries to customers will be significantly higher than in 2009, due among other factors to the positive business growth in China". On the opposite, basic resources and health care stocks fell by more than 1%. From a technical point of view, further advance can be expected on the Stoxx 600 with Aprils high (272.5) as next up target. In the UK, the FTSE rose 0.67% during the week, at the same pace as US equity major indices. Prime Minister David Cameron promised 81 billion pounds of cuts through 2015; the deepest spending reductions in British history. On the economic front data front, September retail sales ex auto & fuel were flat (+0.2% expected) and August figures revised lower to -0.6% from -0.4%. Tomorrow 3Q GDP growth release is expected to be key. Markets consensus look for a 0.4% rise YoY to compare with +1.2% for 2Q. Technically, the FTSE 100 is expected to test the 5830 resistance area this week. The upside breakout of this year high will open the way towards 6038. Alternatively, below 5570, look for a corrective move towards 5350.

 

  October 25th - October 29th

 

border=0 Market Round up

 

Weekly chg (%)

Last

Dow Jones

.6

11132.6

Nasdaq 100

.3

2104.2

Dax Xetra

1.4

6605.8

Cac 40

.9

3868.5

border=0 Foreign Exchange

Euro/dollar : the pair remains on the upside and is challenging its resistance. LONG above 1.33 towards 1.4050 & 1.4250.

Dollar/yen : the pair has broken below its previous low and remains under pressure. SHORT @ 83.8 with 80.50 or even 79 in sight.

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 


Company preview

border=0 ArcelorMittal (EUR 25.08 ; 0.42% ; MT ; MT.AS)
On Tuesday, ArcelorMittal is expected to deliver 3Q net income of E740m compared to E903m a year earlier. Recently, the world's largest steel producer planned to construct a plant with steel output capacity of 6m tons per year in India. In addition, the Co found a Chinese partner, China Oriental Group to jointly produce steel sheet pile products in China. Technically, the stock remains under pressure below E26 (a MT key resistance). As long as this level holds on the upside, a further pullback is more likely to E23.15 and E22 in extension.

border=0 Ford Motor (USD 13.95 ; 1.09% ; F ; F.N)
The same day in the US, Ford Motor may announce 3Q EPS of nearly $0.38 compared with $0.27 on sales of $27bln vs $30.9bln. Earlier, the Co wanted to cut its stake in Mazda to 3% from 11%. Recently, the Co reported its September sales down 16% YoY in the European markets to 127,500 vehicles. From a technical view, the stock is still on the upside, backed by its rising 20D MA and the price should test its YTD high at $14.5 before a new leg up to at least $15.

border=0 Deutsche Bank (EUR 42.095 ; 1.56% ; DBK ; DBKGn.DE)
On Wednesday, Deutsche Bank could release 3Q adjusted net profit of E812m compared with around E1.4bln a year earlier. Early this month, the bank completed a E10.2bln share sale to finance its takeover of Deutsche Postbank. Last week, the bank's price target was cut to E49 from E52 at Goldman Sachs. From a technical point of view, the stock consolidates below its 50D MA and the technical indicators appear to have lost its upside momentum. Therefore, a further drop to re-test its 40 support should be the most probable scenario.

border=0 AstraZeneca (GBp 3304 ; -1.64% ; AZN ; AZN.L)
On Thursday, AstraZeneca is expected to publish 3Q pre-tax profit of 2.8bln compared to 3bln a year ago on revenues of 7.9bln vs 8.2bln. A week ago, the UK drug maker won the supports of the European Medicines Agency for its Fluenz vaccine to prevent influenza in children. Furthermore, the Co's VIMOVO drug received approvals in 23 countries across the EU. Graphically, the stock price is currently trading within a range between 3400p and 3200p and may test the upper boundary in the forthcoming days.

border=0 British Airways (GBp 283.4 ; 0.32% ; BAY ; BAY.L)
Friday, British Airways may report 1H pre-tax profit of 21m compared with a pretax loss of 292m a year earlier on sales of 4.4bln vs 4.1bln. Earlier, the Co launched a new route to Haneda in Japan and also started new daily non-stop flights between San Diego and London. Last Friday, the Co was downgraded to "hold" from "buy" at Societe Generale. Technically, the stock remains well positively oriented and also continued to achieve new YTD high. Above 260p, look for further upsides to 300p and then to 335p.

Selection of those events which may affect the stock prices of international Large Caps


Corporate Calendar October 25th - October 29th

Date

Market

Company

Event

border=0 Monday, October 25th

 

SW

TeliaSonera

3rd-Quarter results

 

SW

Scania B

3rd-Quarter results

 

US

Texas Instruments

3rd-Quarter results

 

US

Radioshack

3rd-Quarter results

 

US

Invesco Ltd

3rd-Quarter results

 

US

Amgen

3rd-Quarter results

border=0 Tuesday, October 26th

 

GE

Merck KGaA

3rd-Quarter results

 

NE

ArcelorMittal

3rd-Quarter results

 

US

Kimberly Clark

3rd-Quarter results

 

US

Du Pont De Nemours

3rd-Quarter results

 

US

Bristol Myers Squibb

3rd-Quarter results

 

US

Ford Motor

3rd-Quarter results

border=0 Wednesday, October 27th

 

GE

SAP

3rd-Quarter results

 

GE

Deutsche Bank

3rd-Quarter results

 

SW

Electrolux (B)

3rd-Quarter results

 

US

ConocoPhillips

3rd-Quarter results

 

US

Northrop Grumman

3rd-Quarter results

 

US

Visa Inc

4th-Quarter results

border=0 Thursday, October 28th

 

FR

Sanofi-Aventis

3rd-Quarter results

 

GE

Daimler

3rd-Quarter results

 

GE

Bayer

3rd-Quarter results

 

UK

AstraZeneca

3rd-Quarter results

 

US

Motorola

3rd-Quarter results

 

US

Exxon Mobil

3rd-Quarter results

border=0 Friday, October 29th

 

FR

Total

3rd-Quarter results

 

UK

Shire

3rd-Quarter results

 

UK

British Airways

1st-Half results

 

US

Chevron

3rd-Quarter results

 

US

Constellation Energy Group

3rd-Quarter results

 

US

Merck & Co

3rd-Quarter results


Economic Calendar (CET) October 25th - October 29th

Date

Market

Economic data

Period

Expected

Last

border=0 Monday, October 25th

16:00:00

US

Existing Home Sales (Mln)

SEP

4.32

4.13

border=0 Tuesday, October 26th

10:00:00

EC

Euro-Zone: Current Account (Bln) (MoM)

AUG

NA

3.7

11:00:00

GE

Zew Survey (Econ. Sentiment)

OCT

-6.6

-4.3

11:00:00

GE

Zew Survey (Current Situation)

OCT

61.9

59.9

14:30:00

US

Housing Starts (Thsd)

SEP

582

598

14:30:00

US

Bulding Permits (Thsd)

SEP

575

571

border=0 Wednesday, October 27th

 

GE

Consumer Price Index (MoM)

SEP

.001

-.001

.364583333333333

FR

Consumer Spending (MoM)

SEP

NA

-.016

.604166666666667

US

Durable Goods Orders

SEP

.026

-.015

.604166666666667

US

Durable Goods Ex Transportation

SEP

.003

.017

16:00:00

US

New Home Sales (Thsd)

SEP

302.04

288

16:30:00

US

Crude Oil Inventories (WoW chg)

W42

NA

667

border=0 Thursday, October 28th

08:45:00

FR

Producer Price Index (MoM)

SEP

NA

0.1%

09:55:00

GE

Unemployment Rate

OCT

.074

.075

11:00:00

EC

Euro-zone: Industrial Confidence

OCT

-1.5

-2

11:00:00

EC

Business Climate Indicator

OCT

.78

.77

11:00:00

EC

Euro-Zone: Consumer Confidence

OCT

-11

-11

14:30:00

US

Initial Jobless Claims (Thsd)

W42

NA

452

border=0 Friday, October 29th

 

GE

Retail Sales (MoM)

SEP

.005

-.004

11:00:00

EC

Euro-Zone: Unemployment Rate

SEP

.1008

.101

14:30:00

US

GDP (QoQ)

2Q

.022

.017

14:30:00

US

GDP Price (QoQ)

2Q

.019

.019

15:45:00

US

Chicago Purchasing Manager Index

OCT

58.4

60.4

15:55:00

US

U. of Michigan Confidence

OCT

68.3

67.9


 

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